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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Reims fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Reims travel to Stade de Roudourou to take on Guingamp. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 March 2026, 13:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Guingamp have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stade de Roudourou — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de Roudourou. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Reims have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Reims have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Guingamp 1.60 PPG, Reims 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Guingamp have won 0, Reims 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Reims winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Guingamp in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Reims in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 41% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 52% versus Reims 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 63% | Reims 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 0.98 xG and Reims 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.964 / defence 0.879 | Reims attack 0.875 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.172. Data: 61 Guingamp games / 27 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Guingamp 35% | Draw 34% | Reims 31%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Reims 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 30% | Reims 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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