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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Guingamp host Amiens at Stade de Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Guingamp — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Guingamp's home record at Stade de Roudourou: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Amiens have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Amiens's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Guingamp are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Guingamp, 4 for Amiens and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Guingamp winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Guingamp trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Amiens trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 53% versus Amiens 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 63% | Amiens 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.52 xG and Amiens 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.983 / defence 0.956 | Amiens attack 0.913 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.178. Amiens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.352 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Guingamp games / 60 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Guingamp 47% | Draw 28% | Amiens 24%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Amiens 4.17. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 40% | Amiens 60%.

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