RED Star FC 93 1-0 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dunkerque at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RED Star FC 93 vs Dunkerque encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RED Star FC 93 and Dunkerque meet at Stade Bauer in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
RED Star FC 93 have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RED Star FC 93's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Stade Bauer this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dunkerque (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dunkerque have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Dunkerque arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — RED Star FC 93 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Dunkerque in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — RED Star FC 93 lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2025, ended 0–3 with Dunkerque winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
RED Star FC 93 half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Dunkerque half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 51% versus Dunkerque 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 49% | Dunkerque 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.05 xG and Dunkerque 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.899 / defence 1.047 | Dunkerque attack 1.231 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.177. Dunkerque have an above-average attack strength of 1.231 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 RED Star FC 93 games / 60 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 26% | Draw 27% | Dunkerque 47%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Dunkerque 2.13. Dunkerque hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dunkerque at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dunkerque if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: RED Star FC 93 60% | Dunkerque 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Bauer • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 26% | Draw 27% | Dunkerque 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG RED Star FC 93 1.05 / Dunkerque 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.899 / def 1.047 | Dunkerque attack 1.231 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.131 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Dunkerque xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Dunkerque kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Dunkerque kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Stade Bauer.
What was the final score in RED Star FC 93 vs Dunkerque?
RED Star FC 93 1 - 0 Dunkerque.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bauer.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Dunkerque part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 26% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Dunkerque?
Record (3 meetings): RED Star FC 93 0W | Draws 1 | Dunkerque 2W.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Dunkerque in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Dunkerque (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
RED Star FC 93's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Dunkerque's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. Flip it around — Dunkerque's attack (1.23x) against RED Star FC 93's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 59/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
26%
3.89
27%
3.73
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.57
1.52
Dunkerque xG
3.89
26%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
6%
17.75
17%
6.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.52 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, RED Star FC 93 have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 19W 19D 21L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for RED Star FC 93 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dunkerque's form line: 27W 14D 18L from 59 games, 1.61 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-D. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for RED Star FC 93 against 1.61 for Dunkerque. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, RED Star FC 93 have posted 1.38 PPG from 29 outings (10W 10D 9L).
On the road, Dunkerque have gone 10W 7D 12L from 29 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 1.47 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 19W 19D 21L in their last 59 games (1.29 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 27W 14D 18L in their last 59 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or Dunkerque away?
RED Star FC 93's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.38 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.28 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dunkerque won 3-0 on 28 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RED Star FC 93 have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dunkerque — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
RED Star FC 93
1
Draws
2
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Dunkerque?
From 4 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, Dunkerque have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when RED Star FC 93 1-0 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between RED Star FC 93 and Dunkerque?
Dunkerque have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 55%, Dunkerque 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (RED Star FC 93) and 41% (Dunkerque).
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Dunkerque in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play Dunkerque?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of RED Star FC 93's games and 55% of Dunkerque's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of RED Star FC 93's recent games and 41% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Dunkerque tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as RED Star FC 93 defy the odds to beat Dunkerque 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RED Star FC 93 beat Dunkerque 1-0 at Stade Bauer, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.05 xG and Dunkerque 1.52 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dunkerque landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 0.90 / defence 1.05 against Dunkerque attack 1.23 / defence 1.03, drawn from 59/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 26% | Draw 27% | Dunkerque 47%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual RED Star FC 93 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 49%, Dunkerque 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dunkerque's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RED Star FC 93 1.29 PPG, Dunkerque 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RED Star FC 93 win broke the near-deadlock. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Dunkerque (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.