RED Star FC 93 3-2 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours RED Star FC 93 (40%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as RED Star FC 93 face Guingamp.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp meet at Stade Bauer in Ligue 2 (matchday 32). This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
RED Star FC 93 have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
RED Star FC 93's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Guingamp's record over their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Guingamp away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. RED Star FC 93's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Guingamp's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours RED Star FC 93, who have won 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against Guingamp — Guingamp have 0 wins, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2025, ended RED Star FC 93 4–0 Guingamp — a RED Star FC 93 win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both RED Star FC 93 and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 5.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
RED Star FC 93 — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Guingamp — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 50% versus Guingamp 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 48% | Guingamp 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: RED Star FC 93 surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Guingamp have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.36 xG and Guingamp 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 1.013 / defence 1.040 | Guingamp attack 0.951 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.174. Data: built from RED Star FC 93's last 64 games and Guingamp's last 65.
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 40% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 30%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 2.52 | Draw 3.32 | Guingamp 3.31. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RED Star FC 93 at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 5.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: RED Star FC 93 50% (last 10 home games) | Guingamp 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 32 | Venue: Stade Bauer • Kick-off: Friday 24 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 40% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG RED Star FC 93 1.36 / Guingamp 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 1.013 / def 1.040 | Guingamp attack 0.951 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Guingamp xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp FAQs
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 24 April 2026 at Stade Bauer.
What was the final score in RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
RED Star FC 93 3 - 2 Guingamp.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bauer.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 32) (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 40% chance of winning, Guingamp a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from RED Star FC 93's attack rating (1.01) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (0.95x) against RED Star FC 93's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from RED Star FC 93's last 64 games and Guingamp's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
40%
2.52
30%
3.32
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.52
1.16
Guingamp xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
12%
8.04
8%
12.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.16 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, RED Star FC 93 have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 22W 20D 22L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Guingamp's form line: 25W 14D 25L from 64 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for RED Star FC 93 against 1.39 for Guingamp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, RED Star FC 93 have posted 1.47 PPG from their last 32 home games (12W 11D 9L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 11W 6D 15L from their last 32 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.44 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Current Season
Guingamp
Current Season
RED Star FC 93 (Home) vs Guingamp (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
RED Star FC 93
Current Season
Guingamp
Current Season
❓ RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp Form FAQs
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 22W 20D 22L in their last 64 games (1.34 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 25W 14D 25L in their last 64 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or Guingamp away?
RED Star FC 93's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.47 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.22 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Guingamp in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
RED Star FC 93 have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: RED Star FC 93 won Guingamp 0-4 RED Star FC 93 on 23 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RED Star FC 93 have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
5
RED Star FC 93
0
Draws
0
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, RED Star FC 93 have won 5, Guingamp have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Guingamp 1-3 RED Star FC 93.
Who has won more matches between RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp?
RED Star FC 93 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 53%, Guingamp 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (RED Star FC 93) and 62% (Guingamp). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of RED Star FC 93's games and 62% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of RED Star FC 93's matches and 62% of Guingamp's.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of RED Star FC 93's recent matches and 72% of Guingamp's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RED Star FC 93 edge out Guingamp 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RED Star FC 93 beat Guingamp 3-2 at Stade Bauer, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.36 xG and Guingamp 1.16 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. RED Star FC 93 beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Guingamp outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 1.01 / defence 1.04 against Guingamp attack 0.95 / defence 1.11, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 40% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 30%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 48%, Guingamp 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Guingamp's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RED Star FC 93 1.34 PPG, Guingamp 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RED Star FC 93 win broke the near-deadlock. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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