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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 33 as Guingamp welcome Bastia to Stade de Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Guingamp — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Guingamp have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stade de Roudourou — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de Roudourou. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade de Roudourou than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Bastia have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Guingamp) versus 0.90 (Bastia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Guingamp, 3 for Bastia and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 3–1 with Guingamp winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Guingamp in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Bastia in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 54% versus Bastia 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 62% | Bastia 29%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.15 xG and Bastia 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.857 / defence 0.954 | Bastia attack 0.980 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.228. Data: 66 Guingamp games / 65 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Guingamp 34% | Draw 33% | Bastia 33%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Bastia 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 30% | Bastia 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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