🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates RED Star FC 93 at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs RED Star FC 93 encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Amiens host RED Star FC 93 at Stade de la Licorne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Amiens have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.20 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Amiens's home record at Stade de la Licorne: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, RED Star FC 93 stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

RED Star FC 93's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour RED Star FC 93 — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Amiens, 1 for RED Star FC 93 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2025, ended 3–1 with Amiens winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Amiens in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

RED Star FC 93 in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 52% versus RED Star FC 93 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 52% | RED Star FC 93 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.10 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.877 / defence 1.446 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.005 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.228. Data: 66 Amiens games / 65 RED Star FC 93 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Amiens 21% | Draw 27% | RED Star FC 93 51%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 4.76 | Draw 3.70 | RED Star FC 93 1.96. RED Star FC 93 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, RED Star FC 93 are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Amiens 60% | RED Star FC 93 30%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights