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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes encounter.

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Match Analysis

Saint Etienne host Estac Troyes at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Saint Etienne stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Estac Troyes have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Estac Troyes away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Saint Etienne 2.30 PPG, Estac Troyes 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

Saint Etienne hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for Estac Troyes, with 1 draws in between.

The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 3–2 with Saint Etienne winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Saint Etienne and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Saint Etienne trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Estac Troyes trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 51% versus Estac Troyes 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 55% | Estac Troyes 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.56 xG and Estac Troyes 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.310 / defence 0.870 | Estac Troyes attack 0.993 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.172. Saint Etienne carry an above-average attack strength of 1.310 — their λ of 1.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 31 Saint Etienne games / 65 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 48% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 22%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Estac Troyes 4.55. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Saint Etienne are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Saint Etienne 40% | Estac Troyes 60%.

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