RED Star FC 93 4-3 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as RED Star FC 93 take on Bastia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
RED Star FC 93 welcome Bastia to Stade Bauer in Ligue 2 (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 11 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, RED Star FC 93 stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
RED Star FC 93 at home: 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Bastia — last 10 games: 0W 7D 3L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bastia's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 6D 3L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
RED Star FC 93 carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for RED Star FC 93, 1 for Bastia and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 0.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 21 Feb 2025, ended RED Star FC 93 0–1 Bastia — a Bastia win.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
RED Star FC 93 trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Bastia trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 45% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 48% versus Bastia 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (RED Star FC 93 47% | Bastia 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 0.86 xG and Bastia 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.791 / defence 0.886 | Bastia attack 0.882 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.142. RED Star FC 93's attack rating of 0.791 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from RED Star FC 93's last 62 games and Bastia's last 62.
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 31% | Draw 37% | Bastia 32%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 3.27 | Draw 2.71 | Bastia 3.08. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.75 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 74% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (RED Star FC 93's last 10 home games and Bastia's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: RED Star FC 93 40% (last 10 home games) | Bastia 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 30 | Venue: Stade Bauer • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 31% | Draw 37% | Bastia 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% (Under 74%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG RED Star FC 93 0.86 / Bastia 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.791 / def 0.886 | Bastia attack 0.882 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Bastia xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia FAQs
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Stade Bauer.
What was the final score in RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia?
RED Star FC 93 4 - 3 Bastia.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bauer.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 30) (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 31% chance of winning, Bastia a 32% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Bastia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (74%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates RED Star FC 93's attack at 0.79x the league average against Bastia's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus RED Star FC 93's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from RED Star FC 93's last 62 games and Bastia's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.27
37%
2.71
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
1.75
0.89
Bastia xG
3.27
31%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
13%
7.98
14%
7.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.3 | 15.5 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.1%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 0.89 for Bastia, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RED Star FC 93's recent record stands at 21W 20D 21L from 62 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Bastia, meanwhile, have gone 14W 27D 21L across 62 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: RED Star FC 93 on 1.34 PPG, Bastia on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, RED Star FC 93 have managed 11W 11D 9L from their last 31 home games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bastia's away record stands at 3W 15D 13L across their last 31 away games, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RED Star FC 93 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 0.95 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Current Season
Bastia
Current Season
RED Star FC 93 (Home) vs Bastia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
RED Star FC 93
Current Season
Bastia
Current Season
❓ RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia Form FAQs
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Bastia in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 21W 20D 21L in their last 62 games (1.34 PPG), while Bastia have gone 14W 27D 21L in their last 62 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or Bastia away?
RED Star FC 93's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.42 PPG; Bastia away: 0.77 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Bastia in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2024. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
RED Star FC 93's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
RED Star FC 93
1
Draws
1
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Bastia?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, Bastia have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Bastia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: RED Star FC 93 4-3 Bastia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 52%, Bastia 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (RED Star FC 93) and 23% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; RED Star FC 93 have failed to score in 26% of games; Bastia in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in RED Star FC 93 and Bastia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of RED Star FC 93's recent matches and 39% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are RED Star FC 93 and Bastia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of RED Star FC 93's recent games and 23% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Bastia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of RED Star FC 93's recent matches and 68% of Bastia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as RED Star FC 93 defy the odds to beat Bastia 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RED Star FC 93 beat Bastia 4-3 at Stade Bauer, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 0.86 xG and Bastia 0.89 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. RED Star FC 93 beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bastia outscored their 0.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 0.79 / defence 0.89 against Bastia attack 0.88 / defence 0.94, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 31% | Draw 37% | Bastia 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual RED Star FC 93 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 47%, Bastia 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Bastia's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RED Star FC 93 1.34 PPG, Bastia 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RED Star FC 93 win broke the near-deadlock. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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