Paris FC 0-2 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 44%, yet in-form Auxerre provide a compelling counter-argument — this Paris FC vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Charléty plays host to Paris FC versus Auxerre in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Paris FC (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Paris FC have posted 6W 0D 4L at Stade Charléty — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Charléty. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Paris FC are significantly better at Stade Charléty than their overall form suggests.
Auxerre have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Auxerre are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Paris FC 1W, Auxerre 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2022, ended 2–1 with Paris FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Paris FC — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Auxerre — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 45% versus Auxerre 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 47% | Auxerre 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.67 xG and Auxerre 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.121 / defence 0.907 | Auxerre attack 1.542 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 0.997. Auxerre have an above-average attack strength of 1.542 — the away xG of 1.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Paris FC games / 9 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 44% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 32%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Auxerre 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Auxerre (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Paris FC 20% | Auxerre 70%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 44% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Paris FC 1.67 / Auxerre 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.121 / def 0.907 | Auxerre attack 1.542 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.239 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Auxerre xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Auxerre kick off?
Paris FC vs Auxerre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Auxerre?
Paris FC 0 - 2 Auxerre.
Where is Paris FC vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Auxerre part of?
Paris FC vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 44% chance of winning, Auxerre a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Paris FC and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Auxerre?
Record (2 meetings): Paris FC 1W | Draws 1 | Auxerre 0W.
What form are Paris FC and Auxerre in?
Paris FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Auxerre (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Paris FC's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (1.54x) against Paris FC's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
44%
2.27
24%
4.20
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Paris FC xG
Total xG
3.06
1.39
Auxerre xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
11%
9.16
6%
16.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.9 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.39 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Paris FC's recent record stands at 17W 11D 19L from 47 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 20L across 47 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Paris FC against 1.13 for Auxerre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Paris FC have managed 10W 3D 10L from 23 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Auxerre's away record stands at 6W 5D 12L across 23 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Paris FC are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.19 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 17W 11D 19L in their last 47 games (1.32 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 13W 14D 20L in their last 47 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Auxerre away?
Paris FC's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.43 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Auxerre in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris FC have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Paris FC
3
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 1, Auxerre have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Auxerre 0-0 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 39%, Auxerre 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Paris FC) and 61% (Auxerre). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 13% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Paris FC have failed to score in 30% of games; Auxerre in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Paris FC's recent matches and 65% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris FC vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Paris FC's matches and 61% of Auxerre's.
Do Paris FC and Auxerre tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Paris FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Paris FC 0-2 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.67 xG and Auxerre 1.39 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Paris FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.12 / defence 0.91 against Auxerre attack 1.54 / defence 1.20, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 44% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 32%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Auxerre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 47%, Auxerre 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Auxerre's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.32 PPG, Auxerre 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Paris FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.