Annecy 2-2 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Annecy at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Paris FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Paris FC make the trip to Parc des Sports to face Annecy in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 September 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Annecy (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy at Parc des Sports this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Paris FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Paris FC have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Annecy, 1 for Paris FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2023, ended 0–1 with Paris FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Paris FC half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 39% versus Paris FC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 46% | Paris FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.46 xG and Paris FC 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.939 / defence 1.000 | Paris FC attack 0.772 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.050. Paris FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.255 — this is suppressing Annecy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Annecy games / 46 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 52% | Draw 27% | Paris FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Paris FC 4.76. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Annecy 50% | Paris FC 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 52% | Draw 27% | Paris FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Annecy 1.46 / Paris FC 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.939 / def 1.000 | Paris FC attack 0.772 / def 1.255 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Annecy (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Paris FC xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Paris FC kick off?
Annecy vs Paris FC kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Paris FC?
Annecy 2 - 2 Paris FC.
Where is Annecy vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Paris FC part of?
Annecy vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 52% chance of winning, Paris FC a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Annecy and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Paris FC?
Record (2 meetings): Annecy 1W | Draws 0 | Paris FC 1W.
What form are Annecy and Paris FC in?
Annecy (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Paris FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Annecy's attack rating (0.94) and Paris FC's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Paris FC's attack (0.77x) against Annecy's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.75
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.27
0.81
Paris FC xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
5%
20.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.2 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Annecy and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Annecy and 0.81 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Annecy have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 13W 16D 17L record — D-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris FC's form line: 17W 10D 19L from 46 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Annecy against 1.33 for Paris FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Annecy have posted 1.57 PPG from 23 outings (10W 6D 7L).
On the road, Paris FC have gone 7W 7D 9L from 23 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Annecy are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.13 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 13W 16D 17L in their last 46 games (1.20 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 17W 10D 19L in their last 46 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Paris FC away?
Annecy's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.57 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Annecy or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Paris FC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Paris FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Annecy
2
Draws
3
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Paris FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Annecy have won 1, Paris FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when Annecy 2-3 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 35%, Paris FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Annecy and 35% for Paris FC.
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Paris FC in 35%; Annecy have failed to score in 35% of games; Paris FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Annecy's recent matches and 48% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Annecy's recent games and 35% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Paris FC tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy and Paris FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy and Paris FC finished level at 2-2 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.46 xG and Paris FC 0.81 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Paris FC outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Paris FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.25, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 52% | Draw 27% | Paris FC 21%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 46%, Paris FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Paris FC's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.20 PPG, Paris FC 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.