Saint Etienne 0-0 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Ajaccio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Ajaccio travel to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard to take on Saint Etienne. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 October 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Saint Etienne stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Saint Etienne have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Ajaccio have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Ajaccio have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Saint Etienne 2.00 PPG, Ajaccio 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Saint Etienne trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Ajaccio trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 60% versus Ajaccio 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 51% | Ajaccio 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.54 xG and Ajaccio 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.062 / defence 0.889 | Ajaccio attack 0.615 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 0.997. Data: 47 Saint Etienne games / 9 Ajaccio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 62% | Draw 25% | Ajaccio 13%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 1.61 | Draw 4.00 | Ajaccio 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Saint Etienne (62%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Ajaccio's lower xG of 0.55 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Saint Etienne are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 50% | Ajaccio 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 62% | Draw 25% | Ajaccio 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 33% | xG Saint Etienne 1.54 / Ajaccio 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.062 / def 0.889 | Ajaccio attack 0.615 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.239 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
0.55
Ajaccio xG
33%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Ajaccio kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Ajaccio kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Ajaccio?
Saint Etienne 0 - 0 Ajaccio.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Ajaccio part of?
Saint Etienne vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 62% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Saint Etienne and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Ajaccio?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Saint Etienne and Ajaccio in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Ajaccio (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Saint Etienne's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Ajaccio's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Ajaccio's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 0.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 17.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.8%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
62%
1.62
25%
3.97
13%
7.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.8%
Home win
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.09
0.55
Ajaccio xG
1.62
62%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
7.75
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.03
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
58%
1.72
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
36%
2.79
3%
36.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 19.1 | 10.4 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.8 | 8.0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 0.55 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Ajaccio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 20W 13D 14L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajaccio's form line: 10W 9D 28L from 47 games, 0.83 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Saint Etienne are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ajaccio.
Venue Form
On home soil, Saint Etienne have posted 1.78 PPG from 23 outings (12W 5D 6L).
On the road, Ajaccio have gone 4W 3D 16L from 23 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.66 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 20W 13D 14L in their last 47 games (1.55 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 10W 9D 28L in their last 47 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Ajaccio away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.78 PPG; Ajaccio away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
1
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Ajaccio?
From 2 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 0, Ajaccio have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Ajaccio 2-0 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Ajaccio?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Saint Etienne see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 44%, Ajaccio 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Saint Etienne) and 65% (Ajaccio).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Ajaccio in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Ajaccio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 39% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 65% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Ajaccio tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Ajaccio in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Saint Etienne's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 10, as Saint Etienne and Ajaccio drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.54 xG and Ajaccio 0.55 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Saint Etienne fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.06 / defence 0.89 against Ajaccio attack 0.61 / defence 1.17, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 62% | Draw 25% | Ajaccio 13%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 51%, Ajaccio 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Ajaccio's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 55% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Ajaccio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.