Caen 1-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Caen vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Caen and Auxerre meet at Stade Michel d'Ornano in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Caen's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Caen at Stade Michel d'Ornano this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Auxerre have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Auxerre arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Caen have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Auxerre in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Caen lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Caen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Auxerre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 58% versus Auxerre 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 52% | Auxerre 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.44 xG and Auxerre 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 1.078 / defence 1.047 | Auxerre attack 1.509 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.081. Auxerre have an above-average attack strength of 1.509 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Caen games / 10 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Caen 33% | Draw 23% | Auxerre 44%. Fair-value odds: Caen 3.03 | Draw 4.35 | Auxerre 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Auxerre as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Caen 70% | Auxerre 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 33% | Draw 23% | Auxerre 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Caen 1.44 / Auxerre 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 1.078 / def 1.047 | Auxerre attack 1.509 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Caen xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Auxerre xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Auxerre kick off?
Caen vs Auxerre kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Auxerre?
Caen 1 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Caen vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Auxerre part of?
Caen vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 33% chance of winning, Auxerre a 44% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Caen and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Auxerre?
Record (2 meetings): Caen 0W | Draws 2 | Auxerre 0W.
What form are Caen and Auxerre in?
Caen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Auxerre (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Caen's attack at 1.08x the league average against Auxerre's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (1.51x) against Caen's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
33%
3.07
23%
4.27
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Caen xG
Total xG
3.15
1.71
Auxerre xG
3.07
33%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
18%
5.51
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
6%
16.94
10%
9.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Caen and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Caen and 1.71 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Caen have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 20W 12D 16L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre's form line: 14W 14D 20L from 48 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Caen against 1.17 for Auxerre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Caen have posted 1.88 PPG from 24 outings (13W 6D 5L).
On the road, Auxerre have gone 7W 5D 12L from 24 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Caen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Caen are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.21 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 20W 12D 16L in their last 48 games (1.50 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 14W 14D 20L in their last 48 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Auxerre away?
Caen's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.88 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Caen have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Caen
3
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Auxerre?
From 4 meetings on record, Caen have won 0, Auxerre have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Auxerre 2-1 Caen.
Who has won more matches between Caen and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 58%, Auxerre 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Caen) and 58% (Auxerre). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Caen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Caen's games and 62% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Caen vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Caen's matches and 58% of Auxerre's.
Do Caen and Auxerre tend to score early?
Caen have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Caen and Auxerre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen and Auxerre finished level at 1-1 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.44 xG and Auxerre 1.71 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 1.08 / defence 1.05 against Auxerre attack 1.51 / defence 1.04, drawn from 48/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 33% | Draw 23% | Auxerre 44%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 52%, Auxerre 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Caen 1.50 PPG, Auxerre 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.