Amiens 1-4 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Amiens face Angers.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Amiens and Angers meet at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne in Ligue 2 (matchday 10). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 October 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Amiens's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Amiens at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Angers have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Angers away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Angers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 47% versus Angers 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 43% | Angers 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.37 xG and Angers 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.970 / defence 0.868 | Angers attack 0.811 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 0.997. Data: built from Amiens's last 47 games and Angers's last 9.
Result probabilities: Amiens 53% | Draw 28% | Angers 19%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 1.89 | Draw 3.58 | Angers 5.22. Amiens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Amiens 40% (last 10 home games) | Angers 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 10 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 53% | Draw 28% | Angers 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Amiens 1.37 / Angers 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.970 / def 0.868 | Angers attack 0.811 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.239 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Amiens (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Angers xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Amiens vs Angers FAQs
What time does Amiens vs Angers kick off?
Amiens vs Angers kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Angers?
Amiens 1 - 4 Angers.
Where is Amiens vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Angers part of?
Amiens vs Angers is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 10) (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 53% chance of winning, Angers a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Amiens and Angers will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Amiens vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Amiens's attack at 0.97x the league average against Angers's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Angers's attack (0.81x) against Amiens's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from Amiens's last 47 games and Angers's last 9 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
53%
1.89
28%
3.58
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.07
0.70
Angers xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
5%
20.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 12.1 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 8.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Amiens vs Angers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Amiens and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Amiens and 0.70 for Angers, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Amiens have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 17W 10D 20L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Angers's form line: 9W 8D 30L from 47 games, 0.74 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Amiens are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Angers.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Amiens have posted 1.52 PPG from their last 23 home games (10W 5D 8L).
On the road, Angers have gone 3W 3D 17L from their last 23 away games — 0.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Amiens are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 0.94 scored and 1.87 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Angers
Blended
Amiens (Home) vs Angers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Amiens
Blended
Angers
Blended
❓ Amiens vs Angers Form FAQs
What form are Amiens and Angers in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 17W 10D 20L in their last 47 games (1.30 PPG), while Angers have gone 9W 8D 30L in their last 47 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Angers away?
Amiens's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.52 PPG; Angers away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Amiens and Angers, the earliest from October 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Amiens
0
Draws
1
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Amiens vs Angers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Angers?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Amiens have won 1, Angers have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Angers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 March 2024: Angers 1-3 Amiens.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Amiens see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 48%, Angers 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Amiens) and 56% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 26% of games; Angers in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Amiens vs Angers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Amiens and Angers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Amiens's recent matches and 39% of Angers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Amiens and Angers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Amiens's recent games and 56% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Angers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 44% of Amiens's recent matches and 83% of Angers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Angers run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Amiens 1-4 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.37 xG and Angers 0.70 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Angers outscored their 0.70 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.97 / defence 0.87 against Angers attack 0.81 / defence 1.14, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 53% | Draw 28% | Angers 19%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Angers win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 43%, Angers 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Angers's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Amiens arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.74. Form was overturned, with Angers winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Amiens (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Angers (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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