Auxerre 3-1 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Auxerre face Rodez.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Auxerre welcome Rodez to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 2 (matchday 9). Kick-off is Saturday 30 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Auxerre stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Auxerre have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rodez — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Rodez have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Auxerre) versus 1.50 (Rodez). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Auxerre's games and 60% of Rodez's (from Auxerre's last 10 home games and Rodez's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Auxerre, 0 for Rodez and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Mar 2022, ended Auxerre 3–1 Rodez — a Auxerre win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Auxerre trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Rodez trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 41% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 58% versus Rodez 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 51% | Rodez 40%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Auxerre surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Rodez have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.34 xG and Rodez 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.079 / defence 0.980 | Rodez attack 1.076 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.050. Data: built from Auxerre's last 8 games and Rodez's last 45.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 42% | Draw 27% | Rodez 31%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.38 | Draw 3.69 | Rodez 3.24. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Auxerre as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Auxerre 60% (last 10 home games) | Rodez 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 9 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 42% | Draw 27% | Rodez 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Auxerre 1.34 / Rodez 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.079 / def 0.980 | Rodez attack 1.076 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Rodez xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Auxerre vs Rodez FAQs
What time does Auxerre vs Rodez kick off?
Auxerre vs Rodez kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Rodez?
Auxerre 3 - 1 Rodez.
Where is Auxerre vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Rodez part of?
Auxerre vs Rodez is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 9) (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 42% chance of winning, Rodez a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Auxerre and Rodez will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Auxerre vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 1.08x the league average against Rodez's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Auxerre's last 8 games and Rodez's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
42%
2.38
27%
3.69
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.45
1.11
Rodez xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
8%
12.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.8 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Auxerre vs Rodez Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.11 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Auxerre's recent record stands at 12W 14D 19L from 45 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 14W 15D 16L across 45 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.11 PPG, Rodez on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 6W 8D 8L from their last 22 home games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rodez's away record stands at 7W 8D 7L across their last 22 away games, a 1.32 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.13 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Rodez
Blended
Auxerre (Home) vs Rodez (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Auxerre
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Auxerre vs Rodez Form FAQs
What form are Auxerre and Rodez in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 12W 14D 19L in their last 45 games (1.11 PPG), while Rodez have gone 14W 15D 16L in their last 45 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Rodez away?
Rodez's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.18 PPG; Rodez away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Auxerre's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Auxerre
0
Draws
1
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Auxerre vs Rodez H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Rodez?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Auxerre have won 3, Rodez have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Rodez last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 April 2024: Rodez 2-0 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Rodez?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Rodez see a goal before the break in 41% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 50%, Rodez 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Auxerre) and 36% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Auxerre have failed to score in 32% of games; Rodez in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Auxerre vs Rodez Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Auxerre and Rodez matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Auxerre's recent matches and 46% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Auxerre and Rodez matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Auxerre's recent games and 36% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Rodez matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Auxerre's recent matches and 41% of Rodez's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Rodez.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Rodez 3-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.34 xG and Rodez 1.11 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Auxerre beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.08 / defence 0.98 against Rodez attack 1.08 / defence 1.00, drawn from 8/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 42% | Draw 27% | Rodez 31%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 51%, Rodez 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Rodez's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.11 PPG, Rodez 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Rodez (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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