Bastia 2-1 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bastia face Annecy.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Annecy travel to Stade Armand-Césari to take on Bastia in Ligue 2 (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 October 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Bastia — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bastia's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Bastia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Annecy stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Annecy have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bastia 0.80 PPG, Annecy 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Bastia have won 2, Annecy 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Apr 2023, ended Bastia 3–0 Annecy — a Bastia win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bastia trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Annecy trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 43% versus Annecy 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 40% | Annecy 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.64 xG and Annecy 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 1.150 / defence 1.492 | Annecy attack 1.016 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 0.997. Bastia's defence rating of 1.492 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Annecy's projected output up. Data: built from Bastia's last 47 games and Annecy's last 47.
Result probabilities: Bastia 41% | Draw 24% | Annecy 36%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.45 | Draw 4.24 | Annecy 2.82. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.64 / 1.51) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bastia are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bastia's last 10 home games and Annecy's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bastia 70% (last 10 home games) | Annecy 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 10 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 41% | Draw 24% | Annecy 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Bastia 1.64 / Annecy 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 1.150 / def 1.492 | Annecy attack 1.016 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.239 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Bastia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Annecy xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bastia vs Annecy FAQs
What time does Bastia vs Annecy kick off?
Bastia vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Annecy?
Bastia 2 - 1 Annecy.
Where is Bastia vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Annecy part of?
Bastia vs Annecy is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 10) (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 41% chance of winning, Annecy a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Bastia and Annecy will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bastia vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bastia's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bastia's last 47 games and Annecy's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
41%
2.45
24%
4.24
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Bastia xG
Total xG
3.15
1.51
Annecy xG
2.45
41%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
9%
11.09
7%
14.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.6 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bastia vs Annecy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Bastia and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Bastia and 1.51 for Annecy, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bastia come into this having played 47 games, going 19W 11D 17L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.19 PPG from 47 outings (13W 17D 17L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bastia on 1.45 PPG, Annecy on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bastia's home form reads 13W 4D 6L across their last 23 home games, a 1.87 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Bastia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 0.83 points per game from their last 23 away games (3W 10D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bastia are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.06 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Annecy
Blended
Bastia (Home) vs Annecy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bastia
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Bastia vs Annecy Form FAQs
What form are Bastia and Annecy in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 19W 11D 17L in their last 47 games (1.45 PPG), while Annecy have gone 13W 17D 17L in their last 47 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Annecy away?
Bastia's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.87 PPG; Annecy away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Bastia or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Annecy in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 27 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Annecy have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Apr 2023, when Bastia won Bastia 3-0 Annecy.
Bastia's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Bastia
2
Draws
3
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Bastia vs Annecy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Annecy?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Bastia have won 3, Annecy have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Annecy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 February 2026: Bastia 0-2 Annecy.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 62% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 39%, Annecy 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Bastia) and 56% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Annecy in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bastia vs Annecy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bastia and Annecy matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Bastia's recent matches and 44% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bastia and Annecy matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Bastia's recent games and 56% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Annecy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Bastia's recent matches and 74% of Annecy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bastia edge out Annecy 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Annecy 2-1 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.64 xG and Annecy 1.51 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 1.15 / defence 1.49 against Annecy attack 1.02 / defence 1.15, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 41% | Draw 24% | Annecy 36%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 40%, Annecy 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Annecy's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.45 PPG, Annecy 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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