Nancy 0-3 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dijon at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nancy vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Nancy welcome Dijon to Stade Marcel-Picot. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 21 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nancy stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nancy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nancy have posted 1W 3D 4L at Stade Marcel-Picot — 0.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dijon have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dijon's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 6L across 8 road games this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Nancy) versus 1.30 (Dijon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Nancy trading profile (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Dijon trading profile (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nancy 61% versus Dijon 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nancy 44% | Dijon 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nancy 1.02 xG and Dijon 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nancy attack 0.752 / defence 1.364 | Dijon attack 0.845 / defence 1.400. League average goals — home 0.972 / away 1.038. Nancy's attack strength of 0.752 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Dijon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.400 — this is suppressing Nancy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Nancy games / 18 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nancy 31% | Draw 29% | Dijon 40%. Fair-value odds: Nancy 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Dijon 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dijon are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dijon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nancy 50% | Dijon 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nancy vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Picot • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nancy 31% | Draw 29% | Dijon 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Nancy 1.02 / Dijon 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Nancy attack 0.752 / def 1.364 | Dijon attack 0.845 / def 1.400 | league avg home 0.972 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Dijon (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Nancy xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Dijon xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nancy vs Dijon kick off?
Nancy vs Dijon kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 21 December 2021 at Stade Marcel-Picot.
What was the final score in Nancy vs Dijon?
Nancy 0 - 3 Dijon.
Where is Nancy vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Picot.
What competition is Nancy vs Dijon part of?
Nancy vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nancy vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Nancy a 31% chance of winning, Dijon a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nancy vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Nancy and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Nancy vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Dijon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nancy and Dijon in?
Nancy (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Dijon (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nancy's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Dijon's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Dijon's attack versus Nancy's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
31%
3.20
29%
3.47
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Nancy xG
Total xG
2.22
1.20
Dijon xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
9%
10.60
14%
6.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nancy vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Nancy and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Nancy and 1.20 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Nancy vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nancy's recent record stands at 2W 6D 10L from 18 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Nancy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dijon, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 10L across 18 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dijon by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nancy heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nancy have managed 1W 3D 4L from 8 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dijon's away record stands at 2W 0D 6L across 8 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Nancy are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.17 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nancy have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nancy
Blended
Dijon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nancy and Dijon in coming into this match?
Nancy have gone 2W 6D 10L in their last 18 games (0.67 PPG), while Dijon have gone 6W 2D 10L in their last 18 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nancy at home or Dijon away?
Nancy's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nancy at home: 0.75 PPG; Dijon away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Nancy
0
Draws
1
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Dijon?
From 2 meetings on record, Nancy have won 1, Dijon have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nancy and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2022, when Dijon 2-3 Nancy.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nancy 50%, Dijon 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Nancy) and 50% (Dijon).
On the defensive side: Nancy have failed to score in 50% of games; Dijon in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nancy home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nancy play Dijon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Nancy's recent matches and 50% of Dijon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nancy vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Nancy's recent games and 50% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nancy and Dijon tend to score early?
Nancy have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Dijon in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dijon run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Nancy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dijon beat Nancy 0-3 at Stade Marcel-Picot, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 1.02 xG and Dijon 1.20 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Nancy fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Dijon outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.75 / defence 1.36 against Dijon attack 0.84 / defence 1.40, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nancy 31% | Draw 29% | Dijon 40%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 44%, Dijon 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nancy's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dijon's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Dijon arrived the stronger side — 1.11 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nancy (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dijon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.