Niort 3-0 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Niort at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Niort vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAU make the trip to Stade René Gaillard to face Niort in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Tuesday 21 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Niort have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Niort, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade René Gaillard, Niort have gone 4W 1D 3L this season (8 games, 1.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
PAU's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 5L across 8 road games this term (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Niort against 1.00 for PAU. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Niort — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
PAU — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Niort 39% versus PAU 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Niort 50% | PAU 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Niort 1.50 xG and PAU 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Niort attack 1.044 / defence 1.225 | PAU attack 0.794 / defence 1.477. League average goals — home 0.972 / away 1.038. PAU bring a strong defensive rating of 1.477 — this is suppressing Niort's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Niort games / 18 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Niort 48% | Draw 26% | PAU 26%. Fair-value odds: Niort 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | PAU 3.85. Niort hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Niort are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Niort if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Niort 38% | PAU 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Niort vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade René Gaillard • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Niort 48% | Draw 26% | PAU 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Niort 1.50 / PAU 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Niort attack 1.044 / def 1.225 | PAU attack 0.794 / def 1.477 | league avg home 0.972 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Niort (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Niort xG
Expected Goals
1.01
PAU xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Niort vs PAU kick off?
Niort vs PAU kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 21 December 2021 at Stade René Gaillard.
What was the final score in Niort vs PAU?
Niort 3 - 0 PAU.
Where is Niort vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade René Gaillard.
What competition is Niort vs PAU part of?
Niort vs PAU is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Niort vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Niort a 48% chance of winning, PAU a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Niort the favourite.
Will both teams score in Niort vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Niort and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Niort vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and PAU?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Niort and PAU in?
Niort (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. PAU (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Niort's attack at 1.04x the league average against PAU's defence at 1.48x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PAU's attack (0.79x) against Niort's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Niort Win
48%
2.06
26%
3.85
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Niort xG
Total xG
2.51
1.01
PAU xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
6%
17.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Niort vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Niort and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Niort and 1.01 for PAU, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Niort vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Niort come into this having played 18 games, going 7W 4D 7L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Niort is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.33 PPG from 18 outings (7W 3D 8L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Niort against 1.33 for PAU. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Niort's home form reads 4W 1D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 0.62 points per game from 8 outings (1W 2D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAU's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Niort come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Niort are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.06 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Niort
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Niort and PAU in coming into this match?
Niort have gone 7W 4D 7L in their last 18 games (1.39 PPG), while PAU have gone 7W 3D 8L in their last 18 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Niort at home or PAU away?
Niort's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Niort at home: 1.62 PPG; PAU away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Niort or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Niort have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, PAU in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Niort won 3-0 on 21 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Niort have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Niort
1
Draws
1
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and PAU?
From 4 meetings on record, Niort have won 2, PAU have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Niort and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when PAU 1-0 Niort.
Who has won more matches between Niort and PAU?
Niort have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Niort 38%, PAU 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Niort) and 50% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Niort keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Niort have failed to score in 38% of games; PAU in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Niort home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Niort play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Niort's recent matches and 50% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Niort vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Niort's recent games and 50% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Niort and PAU tend to score early?
Niort have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, PAU in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Niort run riot with a 3-0 hammering of PAU.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Niort beat PAU 3-0 at Stade René Gaillard, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Niort 1.50 xG and PAU 1.01 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Niort beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAU landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Niort attack 1.04 / defence 1.23 against PAU attack 0.79 / defence 1.48, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Niort 48% | Draw 26% | PAU 26%, with Niort to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Niort 50%, PAU 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Niort's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
PAU's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Niort 1.39 PPG, PAU 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Niort win broke the near-deadlock. Niort (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. PAU (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.