Nancy 2-1 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nancy vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nancy host Bastia at Stade Marcel-Picot in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 January 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Nancy have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nancy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nancy's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 5L across 9 games at Stade Marcel-Picot this term (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game.
Bastia — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nancy at 0.90 PPG versus Bastia's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Nancy have won 0, Bastia 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Nancy in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Bastia in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nancy 58% versus Bastia 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nancy 47% | Bastia 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nancy 0.78 xG and Bastia 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nancy attack 0.678 / defence 1.488 | Bastia attack 0.685 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 0.982 / away 1.047. Nancy's attack strength of 0.678 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 Nancy games / 20 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nancy 26% | Draw 32% | Bastia 42%. Fair-value odds: Nancy 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Bastia 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bastia at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.85 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Nancy 44% | Bastia 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nancy vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Picot • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nancy 26% | Draw 32% | Bastia 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Nancy 0.78 / Bastia 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Nancy attack 0.678 / def 1.488 | Bastia attack 0.685 / def 1.176 | league avg home 0.982 / away 1.047 • Poisson stance: Bastia (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Nancy xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Bastia xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nancy vs Bastia kick off?
Nancy vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Stade Marcel-Picot.
What was the final score in Nancy vs Bastia?
Nancy 2 - 1 Bastia.
Where is Nancy vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Picot.
What competition is Nancy vs Bastia part of?
Nancy vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nancy vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Nancy a 26% chance of winning, Bastia a 42% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nancy vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Nancy and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Nancy vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Bastia?
Record (1 meetings): Nancy 0W | Draws 1 | Bastia 0W.
What form are Nancy and Bastia in?
Nancy (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Bastia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nancy's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Bastia's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Nancy's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
26%
3.79
32%
3.14
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Nancy xG
Total xG
1.85
1.07
Bastia xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
9%
11.02
19%
5.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 16.8 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nancy vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Nancy and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Nancy and 1.07 for Bastia, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Nancy vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nancy's recent record stands at 2W 6D 11L from 19 games, a 0.63 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Nancy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bastia, meanwhile, have gone 5W 7D 7L across 19 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bastia by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nancy heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nancy have managed 1W 3D 5L from 9 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bastia's away record stands at 2W 1D 6L across 9 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Nancy are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 0.95 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nancy
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nancy and Bastia in coming into this match?
Nancy have gone 2W 6D 11L in their last 19 games (0.63 PPG), while Bastia have gone 5W 7D 7L in their last 19 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nancy at home or Bastia away?
Bastia's away record (0.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nancy at home: 0.67 PPG; Bastia away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Nancy or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nancy have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Bastia in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Nancy's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Nancy
2
Draws
0
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Bastia?
From 4 meetings on record, Nancy have won 2, Bastia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nancy and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Bastia 0-0 Nancy.
Who has won more matches between Nancy and Bastia?
Nancy have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Bastia see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nancy 44%, Bastia 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Nancy) and 44% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Nancy have failed to score in 56% of games; Bastia in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nancy home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nancy play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Nancy's recent matches and 44% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nancy vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Nancy's recent games and 44% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nancy and Bastia tend to score early?
Nancy have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bastia in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nancy defy the odds to beat Bastia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nancy beat Bastia 2-1 at Stade Marcel-Picot, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 0.78 xG and Bastia 1.07 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Nancy beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.68 / defence 1.49 against Bastia attack 0.69 / defence 1.18, drawn from 19/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nancy 26% | Draw 32% | Bastia 42%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Nancy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 47%, Bastia 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nancy's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Bastia's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bastia arrived the stronger side — 1.16 PPG against 0.63. Form was overturned, with Nancy winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nancy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.