Nimes 2-1 Nancy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nimes at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nimes vs Nancy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nimes and Nancy meet at Stade des Costières in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 December 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nimes have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nimes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nimes at Stade des Costières this season: 2W 3D 3L from 8 home games — 1.12 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
Nancy's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nancy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nancy have gone 1W 3D 5L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Nimes — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Nancy — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nimes 47% versus Nancy 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nimes 47% | Nancy 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nimes 1.27 xG and Nancy 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nimes attack 0.919 / defence 1.339 | Nancy attack 0.900 / defence 1.457. League average goals — home 0.949 / away 0.974. Nancy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.457 — this is suppressing Nimes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Nimes games / 17 Nancy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nimes 39% | Draw 27% | Nancy 34%. Fair-value odds: Nimes 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Nancy 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nimes at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nimes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Nimes 50% | Nancy 67%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nimes vs Nancy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade des Costières • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nimes 39% | Draw 27% | Nancy 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Nimes 1.27 / Nancy 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Nimes attack 0.919 / def 1.339 | Nancy attack 0.900 / def 1.457 | league avg home 0.949 / away 0.974 • Poisson stance: Nimes (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Nimes xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Nancy xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nimes vs Nancy kick off?
Nimes vs Nancy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Stade des Costières.
What was the final score in Nimes vs Nancy?
Nimes 2 - 1 Nancy.
Where is Nimes vs Nancy being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Costières.
What competition is Nimes vs Nancy part of?
Nimes vs Nancy is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nimes vs Nancy?
Our statistical model gives Nimes a 39% chance of winning, Nancy a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nimes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nimes vs Nancy?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Nimes and Nancy will score (BTTS).
Will Nimes vs Nancy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Nancy?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nimes and Nancy in?
Nimes (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Nancy (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Nimes's attack at 0.92x the league average against Nancy's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nancy's attack (0.90x) against Nimes's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nimes Win
39%
2.59
27%
3.66
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Nimes xG
Total xG
2.44
1.17
Nancy xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
10%
10.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nimes vs Nancy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Nimes and Nancy expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Nimes and 1.17 for Nancy, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Nimes vs Nancy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nimes come into this having played 17 games, going 5W 5D 7L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Nimes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nancy sit at 0.71 PPG from 17 outings (2W 6D 9L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Nancy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nimes carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Nancy — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Nimes's home form reads 2W 3D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Nancy have taken 0.75 points per game from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nimes are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Nancy are on 0.76 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nimes
Blended
Nancy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nimes and Nancy in coming into this match?
Nimes have gone 5W 5D 7L in their last 17 games (1.18 PPG), while Nancy have gone 2W 6D 9L in their last 17 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nimes at home or Nancy away?
Nimes's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nimes at home: 1.12 PPG; Nancy away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Nimes
0
Draws
0
Nancy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Nancy?
From 2 meetings on record, Nimes have won 2, Nancy have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nimes and Nancy last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2022, when Nancy 1-3 Nimes.
Who has won more matches between Nimes and Nancy?
Nimes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nimes 50%, Nancy 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nimes) and 38% (Nancy).
On the defensive side: Nimes have failed to score in 50% of games; Nancy in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nimes home games / Nancy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nimes play Nancy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Nimes's games and 62% of Nancy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nimes vs Nancy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nimes's recent games and 38% of Nancy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nimes and Nancy tend to score early?
Nimes have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Nancy in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nimes edge out Nancy 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nimes beat Nancy 2-1 at Stade des Costières, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nimes 1.27 xG and Nancy 1.17 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nimes attack 0.92 / defence 1.34 against Nancy attack 0.90 / defence 1.46, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nimes 39% | Draw 27% | Nancy 34%, with Nimes to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nimes 47%, Nancy 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nimes's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Nancy's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nimes arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.71. Form held, and they took the win. Nimes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.