Auxerre 2-3 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Auxerre host Le Havre at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 21 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Auxerre — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's home record at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps: 5W 3D 1L from 9 Ligue 2 appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Havre stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's away record: 3W 4D 1L from 8 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Auxerre at 1.80 PPG versus Le Havre's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 50% versus Le Havre 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 61% | Le Havre 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.40 xG and Le Havre 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.355 / defence 1.128 | Le Havre attack 0.883 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 0.972 / away 1.038. Auxerre carry an above-average attack strength of 1.355 — their λ of 1.40 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 18 Auxerre games / 18 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 45% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 28%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Le Havre 3.57. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 44% | Le Havre 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 45% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Auxerre 1.40 / Le Havre 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.355 / def 1.128 | Le Havre attack 0.883 / def 1.063 | league avg home 0.972 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Le Havre xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Le Havre kick off?
Auxerre vs Le Havre kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 21 December 2021 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Le Havre?
Auxerre 2 - 3 Le Havre.
Where is Auxerre vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Le Havre part of?
Auxerre vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 45% chance of winning, Le Havre a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Auxerre and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Le Havre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Auxerre and Le Havre in?
Auxerre (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Le Havre (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 1.35x the league average against Le Havre's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
45%
2.21
27%
3.72
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.43
1.03
Le Havre xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
7%
14.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.03 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Auxerre's recent record stands at 9W 6D 3L from 18 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 3L across 18 games — 1.61 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.83 PPG, Le Havre on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 4W 3D 1L from 8 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 3W 4D 1L across 8 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 0.94 scored and 0.61 conceded.
Defensively: Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Le Havre in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 9W 6D 3L in their last 18 games (1.83 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 7W 8D 3L in their last 18 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Le Havre away?
Auxerre's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.88 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Le Havre in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Auxerre's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Auxerre
1
Draws
4
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Le Havre?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Le Havre have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Le Havre 1-1 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Le Havre?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 50%, Le Havre 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Auxerre) and 25% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Le Havre in 50%; Le Havre in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Auxerre's recent matches and 38% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Auxerre's recent games and 25% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Le Havre tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Le Havre defy the odds to beat Auxerre 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Auxerre 2-3 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.40 xG and Le Havre 1.03 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Le Havre outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.35 / defence 1.13 against Le Havre attack 0.88 / defence 1.06, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 45% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 28%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Le Havre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 61%, Le Havre 22%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Le Havre's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.83 PPG, Le Havre 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Havre win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.