Paris FC 1-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Paris FC vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Paris FC host Amiens at Stade Charléty in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 21 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Paris FC — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Charléty, Paris FC have gone 4W 3D 1L this season (8 games, 1.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Amiens have recorded 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's away record: 1W 5D 2L from 8 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Paris FC have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Paris FC in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Amiens in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 17% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 39% versus Amiens 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Paris FC 33% | Amiens 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.06 xG and Amiens 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 0.963 / defence 0.986 | Amiens attack 0.809 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 0.972 / away 1.038. Data: 18 Paris FC games / 18 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 40% | Draw 32% | Amiens 28%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Amiens 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris FC at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.89 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates are neutral: Paris FC 50% | Amiens 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 40% | Draw 32% | Amiens 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Paris FC 1.06 / Amiens 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 0.963 / def 0.986 | Amiens attack 0.809 / def 1.133 | league avg home 0.972 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Amiens xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Amiens kick off?
Paris FC vs Amiens kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 21 December 2021 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Amiens?
Paris FC 1 - 0 Amiens.
Where is Paris FC vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Amiens part of?
Paris FC vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 40% chance of winning, Amiens a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Paris FC and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Amiens?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Paris FC and Amiens in?
Paris FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Amiens (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Paris FC's attack at 0.96x the league average against Amiens's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Paris FC's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
40%
2.48
32%
3.16
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Paris FC xG
Total xG
1.89
0.83
Amiens xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
10%
10.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 12.5 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Paris FC and 0.83 for Amiens, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Paris FC have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 10W 3D 5L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amiens's form line: 4W 9D 5L from 18 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-W. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Paris FC are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Amiens.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Paris FC have posted 1.88 PPG from 8 outings (4W 3D 1L).
On the road, Amiens have gone 1W 5D 2L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Paris FC are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.22 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Amiens in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Amiens in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 10W 3D 5L in their last 18 games (1.83 PPG), while Amiens have gone 4W 9D 5L in their last 18 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Amiens away?
Paris FC's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.88 PPG; Amiens away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Amiens in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Paris FC and Amiens runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2023, when Paris FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Paris FC's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Paris FC
3
Draws
0
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Amiens?
From 8 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 5, Amiens have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2025, when Paris FC 1-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Amiens?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 50%, Amiens 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Paris FC and 25% for Amiens.
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Amiens in 38%; Amiens in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Paris FC's recent matches and 50% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris FC vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Paris FC's recent games and 25% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Amiens tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Amiens in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Amiens 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Amiens 1-0 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.06 xG and Amiens 0.83 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Amiens landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.99 against Amiens attack 0.81 / defence 1.13, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 40% | Draw 32% | Amiens 28%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 33%, Amiens 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Amiens's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.