Dijon 1-2 Nimes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dijon at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dijon vs Nimes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 20 as Dijon welcome Nimes to Stade Gaston-Gérard. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 January 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dijon have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Dijon have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Nimes — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nimes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nimes have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.22 PPG). Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Dijon) versus 1.00 (Nimes). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Dijon, 1 for Nimes and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2021, ended 1–2 with Nimes winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dijon trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Nimes trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dijon 53% versus Nimes 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 53% | Nimes 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.32 xG and Nimes 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 1.113 / defence 1.256 | Nimes attack 0.843 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 0.965 / away 1.062. Nimes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Dijon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Dijon games / 19 Nimes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 41% | Draw 27% | Nimes 32%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Nimes 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dijon are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dijon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Dijon 60% | Nimes 44%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Nimes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jan 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 41% | Draw 27% | Nimes 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Dijon 1.32 / Nimes 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 1.113 / def 1.256 | Nimes attack 0.843 / def 1.227 | league avg home 0.965 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Dijon (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Nimes xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Nimes kick off?
Dijon vs Nimes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 8 January 2022 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Nimes?
Dijon 1 - 2 Nimes.
Where is Dijon vs Nimes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Nimes part of?
Dijon vs Nimes is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Nimes?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 41% chance of winning, Nimes a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Nimes?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Dijon and Nimes will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Nimes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Nimes?
Record (1 meetings): Dijon 0W | Draws 0 | Nimes 1W.
What form are Dijon and Nimes in?
Dijon (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Nimes (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dijon's attack at 1.11x the league average against Nimes's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nimes's attack versus Dijon's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
41%
2.44
27%
3.67
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.44
1.12
Nimes xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
13%
7.51
9%
11.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Nimes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Dijon and Nimes expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Dijon and 1.12 for Nimes, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Nimes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Dijon have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 7W 2D 10L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nimes's form line: 6W 5D 8L from 19 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Nimes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dijon on 1.21 PPG, Nimes on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dijon have posted 1.56 PPG from 9 outings (4W 2D 3L).
On the road, Nimes have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Dijon are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Nimes are on 1.16 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Blended
Nimes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Nimes in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 7W 2D 10L in their last 19 games (1.21 PPG), while Nimes have gone 6W 5D 8L in their last 19 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Nimes away?
Dijon's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.56 PPG; Nimes away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Dijon have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Dijon's record when hosting Nimes specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Dijon
0
Draws
2
Nimes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Nimes?
From 4 meetings on record, Dijon have won 2, Nimes have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Nimes last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2023, when Nimes 1-2 Dijon.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dijon see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Nimes see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 56%, Nimes 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Dijon) and 44% (Nimes).
On the defensive side: Nimes in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Nimes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Nimes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Dijon's recent matches and 44% of Nimes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs Nimes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Dijon's recent games and 44% of Nimes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Nimes defy the odds to beat Dijon 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nimes beat Dijon 1-2 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.32 xG and Nimes 1.12 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Nimes outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 1.11 / defence 1.26 against Nimes attack 0.84 / defence 1.23, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 41% | Draw 27% | Nimes 32%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Nimes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 53%, Nimes 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Nimes's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dijon 1.21 PPG, Nimes 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nimes win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.