Guingamp 1-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Amiens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Guingamp host Amiens at Stade de Roudourou in Ligue 2 (matchday 27). Kick-off is Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Guingamp — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Guingamp's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Amiens have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Amiens's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Guingamp are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 9 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Guingamp, 4 for Amiens and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Guingamp 2–1 Amiens — a Guingamp win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Amiens trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 53% versus Amiens 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 63% | Amiens 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.52 xG and Amiens 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.983 / defence 0.956 | Amiens attack 0.913 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.178. Amiens's defence rating of 1.352 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Guingamp's projected output up. Data: built from Guingamp's last 60 games and Amiens's last 60.
Result probabilities: Guingamp 47% | Draw 28% | Amiens 24%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.11 | Draw 3.56 | Amiens 4.08. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Guingamp 40% (last 10 home games) | Amiens 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 27 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 47% | Draw 28% | Amiens 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Guingamp 1.52 / Amiens 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.983 / def 0.956 | Amiens attack 0.913 / def 1.352 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Amiens xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Guingamp vs Amiens FAQs
What time does Guingamp vs Amiens kick off?
Guingamp vs Amiens kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 13 March 2026 at Stade de Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Amiens?
Guingamp 1 - 0 Amiens.
Where is Guingamp vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Amiens part of?
Guingamp vs Amiens is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 27) (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 47% chance of winning, Amiens a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Guingamp and Amiens will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Guingamp vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Guingamp's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Guingamp's last 60 games and Amiens's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
47%
2.11
28%
3.56
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.55
1.03
Amiens xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
5%
18.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.2 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Guingamp vs Amiens Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.03 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Guingamp come into this having played 60 games, going 25W 13D 22L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-D.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.10 PPG from 60 outings (19W 9D 32L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.47 PPG, Amiens on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Guingamp's home form reads 13W 7D 9L across their last 29 home games, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 0.76 points per game from their last 29 away games (6W 4D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Guingamp are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.13 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Amiens
Blended
Guingamp (Home) vs Amiens (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Guingamp
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Guingamp vs Amiens Form FAQs
What form are Guingamp and Amiens in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 25W 13D 22L in their last 60 games (1.47 PPG), while Amiens have gone 19W 9D 32L in their last 60 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Amiens away?
Guingamp's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.59 PPG; Amiens away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Amiens in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 13 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Guingamp have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Jan 2022, when Amiens won Amiens 3-0 Guingamp.
Guingamp's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Guingamp
2
Draws
4
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Guingamp vs Amiens H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Amiens?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Guingamp have won 4, Amiens have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Amiens last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 March 2026: Guingamp 1-0 Amiens.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 45%, Amiens 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Guingamp and 55% for Amiens. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Amiens in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Guingamp vs Amiens Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Guingamp and Amiens matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Guingamp's recent matches and 52% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Guingamp and Amiens matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Guingamp's matches and 55% of Amiens's.
Do Guingamp and Amiens matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Guingamp's recent matches and 76% of Amiens's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Guingamp edge out Amiens 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Amiens 1-0 at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.52 xG and Amiens 1.03 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Amiens landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.98 / defence 0.96 against Amiens attack 0.91 / defence 1.35, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 47% | Draw 28% | Amiens 24%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 63%, Amiens 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Amiens's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.47 PPG, Amiens 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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