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Poisson model rates Amiens at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Boulogne vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Amiens make the trip to Stade de la Libération to face Boulogne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form

Boulogne (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Boulogne's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Stade de la Libération this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Amiens have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Amiens's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Boulogne against 0.80 for Amiens. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Boulogne, 0 for Amiens and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Boulogne winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Boulogne — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).

Amiens — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boulogne 56% versus Amiens 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boulogne 52% | Amiens 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 1.09 xG and Amiens 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.862 / defence 1.410 | Amiens attack 0.872 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.173. Data: 25 Boulogne games / 59 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Boulogne 27% | Draw 29% | Amiens 44%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Amiens 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Amiens at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Boulogne 60% | Amiens 50% BTTS from recent games.

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