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Poisson model favours Guingamp (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Laval face Guingamp.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 26 as Laval welcome Guingamp to Stade Francis Le Basser. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Laval — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Laval's home record at Stade Francis Le Basser: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Guingamp's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Guingamp — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

Guingamp have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 7 encounters against Laval's 2 victories.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Guingamp winning.

It is worth noting that Guingamp have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Data

Laval trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Guingamp trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 46% versus Guingamp 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 39% | Guingamp 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 0.98 xG and Guingamp 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 0.806 / defence 1.141 | Guingamp attack 1.074 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.173. Data: 59 Laval games / 59 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Laval 24% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 46%. Fair-value odds: Laval 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Guingamp 2.17. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Laval 40% | Guingamp 70%.

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