Clermont Foot 0-1 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris FC at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Paris FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Clermont Foot host Paris FC at Stade Gabriel-Montpied in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 30 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Clermont Foot — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Clermont Foot's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stade Gabriel-Montpied this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Paris FC stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Paris FC have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Paris FC's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Paris FC's 2.00 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Clermont Foot's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Paris FC in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 50% versus Paris FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 50% | Paris FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.05 xG and Paris FC 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.973 / defence 1.218 | Paris FC attack 1.088 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.142. Data: 2 Clermont Foot games / 40 Paris FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 26% | Draw 26% | Paris FC 48%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Paris FC 2.08. Paris FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 80% | Paris FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 30 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 26% | Draw 26% | Paris FC 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Clermont Foot 1.05 / Paris FC 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.973 / def 1.218 | Paris FC attack 1.088 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Paris FC xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Paris FC kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Paris FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 August 2024 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Paris FC?
Clermont Foot 0 - 1 Paris FC.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Paris FC part of?
Clermont Foot vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 26% chance of winning, Paris FC a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Clermont Foot and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Paris FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Clermont Foot and Paris FC in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Paris FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Clermont Foot's attack at 0.97x the league average against Paris FC's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
26%
3.79
26%
3.88
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.57
1.51
Paris FC xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
6%
17.19
17%
6.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.51 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 0.81 PPG on a 6W 11D 19L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Paris FC's form line: 17W 12D 7L from 36 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Paris FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Paris FC are the form team by 0.94 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Clermont Foot.
Venue Form
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 0.83 PPG from 18 outings (3W 6D 9L).
On the road, Paris FC have gone 7W 8D 3L from 18 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Clermont Foot are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.47 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Early Season
Paris FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 6W 11D 19L in their last 36 games (0.81 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 17W 12D 7L in their last 36 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Paris FC away?
Paris FC's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 0.83 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Paris FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Clermont Foot
0
Draws
2
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Paris FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 0, Paris FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when Paris FC 2-0 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Clermont Foot see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 50%, Paris FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Clermont Foot) and 39% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Paris FC in 33%; Clermont Foot have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 56% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 39% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Paris FC tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Clermont Foot 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Clermont Foot 0-1 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.05 xG and Paris FC 1.51 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Clermont Foot fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.97 / defence 1.22 against Paris FC attack 1.09 / defence 0.85, drawn from 2/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 26% | Draw 26% | Paris FC 48%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 50%, Paris FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Paris FC's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.81. Form held, and they took the win. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Paris FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.