Guingamp 3-4 RED Star FC 93 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 69%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Guingamp and RED Star FC 93 meet at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Friday 30 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Guingamp's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp's home record at Stade du Roudourou: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade du Roudourou. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
RED Star FC 93 (all games): 1W 0D 1L across 2 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. RED Star FC 93 have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Guingamp, 1.50 for RED Star FC 93 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Guingamp have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, RED Star FC 93 in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 2.10 xG and RED Star FC 93 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.218 / defence 0.904 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.728 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.142. RED Star FC 93 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.357 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Guingamp games / 2 RED Star FC 93 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Guingamp 69% | Draw 19% | RED Star FC 93 12%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | RED Star FC 93 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Guingamp (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 69% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 30 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 69% | Draw 19% | RED Star FC 93 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 46% | xG Guingamp 2.10 / RED Star FC 93 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.218 / def 0.904 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.728 / def 1.357 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.75
RED Star FC 93 xG
46%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 August 2024 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93?
Guingamp 3 - 4 RED Star FC 93.
Where is Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 69% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Guingamp and RED Star FC 93 will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and RED Star FC 93?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guingamp and RED Star FC 93 in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Guingamp's attack at 1.22x the league average against RED Star FC 93's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — RED Star FC 93's attack (0.73x) against Guingamp's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 1-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
69%
1.46
19%
5.22
12%
8.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.85
0.75
RED Star FC 93 xG
1.46
69%
Home win
5.22
19%
Draw
8.21
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
12%
8.17
Win to Nil
32%
3.09
1%
67.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Guingamp and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.75 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Guingamp's recent record stands at 2W 0D 0L from 2 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RED Star FC 93, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Guingamp by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over RED Star FC 93 heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guingamp are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 0.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; RED Star FC 93 in 0%.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; RED Star FC 93 in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Early Season
RED Star FC 93
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Guingamp or RED Star FC 93 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, RED Star FC 93 in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
RED Star FC 93 have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: RED Star FC 93 won 0-4 on 23 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against RED Star FC 93 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Guingamp
0
Draws
4
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and RED Star FC 93?
From 4 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 0, RED Star FC 93 have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when RED Star FC 93 3-2 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and RED Star FC 93?
RED Star FC 93 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play RED Star FC 93?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Guingamp's recent matches and 0% of RED Star FC 93's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Guingamp's recent games and 50% of RED Star FC 93's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and RED Star FC 93 tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, RED Star FC 93 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as RED Star FC 93 defy the odds to beat Guingamp 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RED Star FC 93 beat Guingamp 3-4 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 2.10 xG and RED Star FC 93 0.75 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. RED Star FC 93 outscored their 0.75 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.22 / defence 0.90 against RED Star FC 93 attack 0.73 / defence 1.36, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 69% | Draw 19% | RED Star FC 93 12%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a RED Star FC 93 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 50%, RED Star FC 93 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with RED Star FC 93 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Guingamp shipped 4 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RED Star FC 93 scored 4 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.