Amiens 1-0 Lorient – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Lorient fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Amiens and Lorient meet at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 August 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Amiens have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Amiens have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Amiens's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
Lorient (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Lorient have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lorient away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Amiens, 0.90 for Lorient — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Amiens half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Lorient half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 42% versus Lorient 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 31% | Lorient 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.32 xG and Lorient 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.041 / defence 0.796 | Lorient attack 0.839 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.164. Amiens's defence rating of 0.796 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Amiens games / 2 Lorient games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Amiens 49% | Draw 29% | Lorient 22%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Lorient 4.55. Amiens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amiens are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 40% | Lorient 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Lorient | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 49% | Draw 29% | Lorient 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Amiens 1.32 / Lorient 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 1.041 / def 0.796 | Lorient attack 0.839 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Amiens (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Lorient xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Lorient kick off?
Amiens vs Lorient kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Lorient?
Amiens 1 - 0 Lorient.
Where is Amiens vs Lorient being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Lorient part of?
Amiens vs Lorient is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Lorient?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 49% chance of winning, Lorient a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Lorient?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Amiens and Lorient will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Lorient have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Lorient?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amiens and Lorient in?
Amiens (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Lorient (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Amiens's attack at 1.04x the league average against Lorient's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lorient's attack (0.84x) against Amiens's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
49%
2.02
29%
3.51
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.10
0.78
Lorient xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
6%
16.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.6 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Lorient?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Amiens and Lorient expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Amiens and 0.78 for Lorient, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Lorient?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Amiens's recent record stands at 10W 17D 9L from 36 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Amiens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lorient, meanwhile, have gone 9W 8D 19L across 36 games — 0.97 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lorient, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Amiens against 0.97 for Lorient. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Amiens have managed 4W 10D 4L from 18 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lorient's away record stands at 4W 4D 10L across 18 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Amiens are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Lorient are on 1.28 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Early Season
Lorient
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Lorient in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 10W 17D 9L in their last 36 games (1.31 PPG), while Lorient have gone 9W 8D 19L in their last 36 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Lorient away?
Amiens's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.22 PPG; Lorient away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Amiens or Lorient been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Lorient in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Amiens
0
Draws
1
Lorient
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Lorient?
From 2 meetings on record, Amiens have won 1, Lorient have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Lorient last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Lorient 3-1 Amiens.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Amiens see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Lorient see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 44%, Lorient 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Amiens) and 61% (Lorient).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 39% of games; Lorient in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Lorient away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Lorient?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Amiens's recent matches and 44% of Lorient's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Lorient usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Amiens's recent games and 61% of Lorient's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Amiens edge out Lorient 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Lorient 1-0 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.32 xG and Lorient 0.78 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.04 / defence 0.80 against Lorient attack 0.84 / defence 1.02, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 49% | Draw 29% | Lorient 22%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 31%, Lorient 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lorient's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.31 PPG, Lorient 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Lorient (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.