Caen 1-1 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Caen vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Michel d'Ornano plays host to Caen versus Annecy in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Friday 30 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Caen have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Caen have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Caen have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stade Michel d'Ornano — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Michel d'Ornano. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Caen are significantly better at Stade Michel d'Ornano than their overall form suggests.
Annecy (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Annecy's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Caen against 1.60 for Annecy. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Caen 2W, Annecy 1W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with Caen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Caen half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 45% versus Annecy 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 48% | Annecy 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 0.97 xG and Annecy 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 0.901 / defence 0.961 | Annecy attack 1.179 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.142. Data: 40 Caen games / 40 Annecy games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Caen 28% | Draw 28% | Annecy 44%. Fair-value odds: Caen 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Annecy 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Caen 10% | Annecy 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Friday 30 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 28% | Draw 28% | Annecy 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Caen 0.97 / Annecy 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 0.901 / def 0.961 | Annecy attack 1.179 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Annecy (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Caen xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Annecy xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Annecy kick off?
Caen vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 August 2024 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Annecy?
Caen 1 - 1 Annecy.
Where is Caen vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Annecy part of?
Caen vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 28% chance of winning, Annecy a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Caen and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Annecy?
Record (4 meetings): Caen 2W | Draws 1 | Annecy 1W.
What form are Caen and Annecy in?
Caen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Annecy (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Caen's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (1.18x) against Caen's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
28%
3.58
28%
3.55
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Caen xG
Total xG
2.26
1.29
Annecy xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
8%
13.06
17%
6.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 13.5 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Caen and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Caen and 1.29 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Caen's recent record stands at 17W 7D 16L from 40 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Caen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Annecy, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 17L across 40 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Caen against 1.23 for Annecy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Caen have managed 11W 3D 6L from 20 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Annecy's away record stands at 8W 4D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Caen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Caen are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.32 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Caen have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Early Season
Annecy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and Annecy in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 17W 7D 16L in their last 40 games (1.45 PPG), while Annecy have gone 13W 10D 17L in their last 40 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Annecy away?
Caen's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.80 PPG; Annecy away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Caen or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Caen have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Annecy in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Caen have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Annecy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Caen
2
Draws
2
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Annecy?
From 6 meetings on record, Caen have won 2, Annecy have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2025, when Annecy 1-0 Caen.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 25%, Annecy 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Caen) and 60% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Caen keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Caen's recent matches and 55% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Caen vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Caen's recent games and 60% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Annecy tend to score early?
Caen have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Annecy in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Caen and Annecy share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 3, as Caen and Annecy drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 0.97 xG and Annecy 1.29 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 0.90 / defence 0.96 against Annecy attack 1.18 / defence 0.85, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Caen 28% | Draw 28% | Annecy 44%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 48%, Annecy 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Annecy's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Caen 1.45 PPG, Annecy 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.