Estac Troyes 0-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Clermont Foot travel to Stade de l'Aube to take on Estac Troyes. The game is scheduled for Friday 23 August 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Estac Troyes stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Estac Troyes have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estac Troyes's home record at Stade de l'Aube: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Estac Troyes are significantly better at Stade de l'Aube than their overall form suggests.
Clermont Foot — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Clermont Foot's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Estac Troyes) versus 0.90 (Clermont Foot). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Estac Troyes, 3 for Clermont Foot and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2023, ended 0–2 with Clermont Foot winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Estac Troyes in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 57% versus Clermont Foot 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 49% | Clermont Foot 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.61 xG and Clermont Foot 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 1.069 / defence 1.064 | Clermont Foot attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.115. Data: 39 Estac Troyes games / 1 Clermont Foot games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 51% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 23%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Clermont Foot 4.35. Estac Troyes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estac Troyes are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 90% | Clermont Foot 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Friday 23 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 51% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Estac Troyes 1.61 / Clermont Foot 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 1.069 / def 1.064 | Clermont Foot attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Clermont Foot xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 23 August 2024 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot?
Estac Troyes 0 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot part of?
Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 51% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot?
Record (4 meetings): Estac Troyes 1W | Draws 0 | Clermont Foot 3W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Estac Troyes's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Clermont Foot's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.88
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.62
1.01
Clermont Foot xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
5%
21.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.01 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estac Troyes's recent record stands at 8W 13D 14L from 35 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Estac Troyes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 5W 11D 19L across 35 games — 0.74 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estac Troyes on 1.06 PPG, Clermont Foot on 0.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Estac Troyes have managed 6W 4D 7L from 17 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 2W 5D 10L across 17 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estac Troyes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 0.80 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Early Season
Clermont Foot
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 8W 13D 14L in their last 35 games (1.06 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 5W 11D 19L in their last 35 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Clermont Foot away?
Estac Troyes's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.29 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
4
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot?
From 8 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 3, Clermont Foot have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Estac Troyes 2-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 71%, Clermont Foot 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Estac Troyes) and 59% (Clermont Foot). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Clermont Foot?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Estac Troyes's games and 53% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estac Troyes vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Estac Troyes's matches and 59% of Clermont Foot's.
Do Estac Troyes and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Clermont Foot defy the odds to beat Estac Troyes 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Estac Troyes 0-1 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.61 xG and Clermont Foot 1.01 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Estac Troyes fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.07 / defence 1.06 against Clermont Foot attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 51% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 23%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Clermont Foot win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 49%, Clermont Foot 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.06 PPG, Clermont Foot 0.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Clermont Foot win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.