Grenoble 1-1 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grenoble at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grenoble vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAU make the trip to Stade des Alpes to face Grenoble in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Friday 30 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Grenoble's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Grenoble have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Grenoble's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stade des Alpes this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
PAU (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. PAU have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAU's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Grenoble, 2 for PAU and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 0–1 with PAU winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Grenoble half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
PAU half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 48% versus PAU 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grenoble 45% | PAU 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 1.50 xG and PAU 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 1.038 / defence 1.027 | PAU attack 1.160 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.142. Data: 40 Grenoble games / 40 PAU games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Grenoble 41% | Draw 25% | PAU 34%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | PAU 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Grenoble at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grenoble if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Grenoble 50% | PAU 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Friday 30 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 41% | Draw 25% | PAU 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Grenoble 1.50 / PAU 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 1.038 / def 1.027 | PAU attack 1.160 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
1.36
PAU xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs PAU kick off?
Grenoble vs PAU kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 August 2024 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs PAU?
Grenoble 1 - 1 PAU.
Where is Grenoble vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs PAU part of?
Grenoble vs PAU is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 41% chance of winning, PAU a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Grenoble and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and PAU?
Record (6 meetings): Grenoble 2W | Draws 2 | PAU 2W.
What form are Grenoble and PAU in?
Grenoble (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. PAU (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Grenoble's attack rating (1.04) and PAU's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAU's attack (1.16x) against Grenoble's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
41%
2.45
25%
4.02
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Grenoble xG
Total xG
2.86
1.36
PAU xG
2.45
41%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
10%
9.56
8%
13.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.7 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Grenoble and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Grenoble and 1.36 for PAU, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Grenoble's recent record stands at 14W 12D 14L from 40 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Grenoble, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAU, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 13L across 40 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for PAU, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Grenoble against 1.38 for PAU. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Grenoble have managed 8W 7D 5L from 20 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAU's away record stands at 6W 7D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Grenoble are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.58 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PAU in 62%.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Early Season
PAU
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and PAU in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 14W 12D 14L in their last 40 games (1.35 PPG), while PAU have gone 14W 13D 13L in their last 40 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or PAU away?
Grenoble's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.55 PPG; PAU away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Grenoble or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, PAU in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grenoble have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Grenoble
5
Draws
3
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and PAU?
From 10 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 2, PAU have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when PAU 2-2 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and PAU?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 45%, PAU 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Grenoble) and 65% (PAU). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Grenoble have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play PAU?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Grenoble's games and 70% of PAU's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grenoble vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Grenoble's matches and 65% of PAU's.
Do Grenoble and PAU tend to score early?
Grenoble have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, PAU in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Grenoble and PAU share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 3, as Grenoble and PAU drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.50 xG and PAU 1.36 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 1.04 / defence 1.03 against PAU attack 1.16 / defence 1.14, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 41% | Draw 25% | PAU 34%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 45%, PAU 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
PAU's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.35 PPG, PAU 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.