Clermont Foot 0-1 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dunkerque at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 4 as Clermont Foot welcome Dunkerque to Stade Gabriel-Montpied. Kick-off is set for Friday 13 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Clermont Foot have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Clermont Foot's home record at Stade Gabriel-Montpied: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dunkerque stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Dunkerque have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dunkerque's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Clermont Foot) versus 1.10 (Dunkerque). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Clermont Foot register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Dunkerque in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Dunkerque in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 49% versus Dunkerque 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 49% | Dunkerque 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.14 xG and Dunkerque 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.852 / defence 1.161 | Dunkerque attack 1.068 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.145. Data: 3 Clermont Foot games / 41 Dunkerque games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 30% | Draw 26% | Dunkerque 43%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Dunkerque 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dunkerque are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dunkerque offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 70% | Dunkerque 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 13 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 30% | Draw 26% | Dunkerque 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Clermont Foot 1.14 / Dunkerque 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.852 / def 1.161 | Dunkerque attack 1.068 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Dunkerque xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 September 2024 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque?
Clermont Foot 0 - 1 Dunkerque.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque part of?
Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 30% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Clermont Foot and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Dunkerque?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Clermont Foot and Dunkerque in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Dunkerque (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Clermont Foot's attack at 0.85x the league average against Dunkerque's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/41 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
30%
3.29
26%
3.80
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.56
1.42
Dunkerque xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
7%
13.65
14%
7.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.42 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Clermont Foot's recent record stands at 6W 11D 20L from 37 games, a 0.78 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dunkerque, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 16L across 37 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-D-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dunkerque, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dunkerque by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Clermont Foot heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Clermont Foot have managed 3W 6D 9L from 18 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dunkerque's away record stands at 7W 6D 5L across 18 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dunkerque come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Clermont Foot are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 0.97 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Early Season
Dunkerque
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 6W 11D 20L in their last 37 games (0.78 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 12W 9D 16L in their last 37 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Dunkerque away?
Dunkerque's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 0.83 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Clermont Foot and Dunkerque runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2025, when Dunkerque won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Dunkerque specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Clermont Foot
1
Draws
2
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Dunkerque?
From 4 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 1, Dunkerque have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Clermont Foot 2-1 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Dunkerque?
Dunkerque have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Clermont Foot see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 44%, Dunkerque 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Clermont Foot) and 44% (Dunkerque).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 50% of games; Dunkerque in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 56% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 44% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dunkerque edge out Clermont Foot 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque beat Clermont Foot 0-1 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.14 xG and Dunkerque 1.42 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Clermont Foot fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.85 / defence 1.16 against Dunkerque attack 1.07 / defence 1.09, drawn from 3/41 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 30% | Draw 26% | Dunkerque 43%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 49%, Dunkerque 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dunkerque's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Dunkerque arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.78. Form held, and they took the win. Dunkerque (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.