Boulogne 0-2 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Boulogne at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Boulogne vs Clermont Foot encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Boulogne and Clermont Foot meet at Stade de la Libération in Ligue 2 (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.

Current Form

Boulogne's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Boulogne have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Clermont Foot (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Boulogne's favour (1.50 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 5 Dec 2025, ended Boulogne 1–1 Clermont Foot — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Boulogne half-time and goal-timing data (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).

Clermont Foot half-time and goal-timing data (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 80%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Boulogne 60% and Clermont Foot 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boulogne 56% | Clermont Foot 52%). Note also that Clermont Foot surrender HT leads in 80% of cases while Boulogne recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 1.49 xG and Clermont Foot 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.951 / defence 1.356 | Clermont Foot attack 0.908 / defence 1.348. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.207. Clermont Foot's defence rating of 1.348 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Boulogne's projected output up. Boulogne's defence rating of 1.356 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Clermont Foot's projected output up. Data: built from Boulogne's last 23 games and Clermont Foot's last 57.

Result probabilities: Boulogne 38% | Draw 24% | Clermont Foot 38%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 2.64 | Draw 4.10 | Clermont Foot 2.66. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 38% to win, with the draw at 24%. There is no result lean here.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.49 / 1.49) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Boulogne 38% and Clermont Foot 38%, with the draw at 24%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.

The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Boulogne's last 10 home games and Clermont Foot's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Boulogne 70% (last 10 home games) | Clermont Foot 50% (last 10 away games).

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