🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Grenoble at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grenoble vs Boulogne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stade des Alpes plays host to Grenoble versus Boulogne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Friday 27 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form

Grenoble (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stade des Alpes, Grenoble have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Boulogne's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Boulogne's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Grenoble against 1.40 for Boulogne. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Grenoble 0W, Boulogne 1W, 0D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2025, ended 1–3 with Boulogne winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Grenoble — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Boulogne — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 62% versus Boulogne 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grenoble 46% | Boulogne 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 1.01 xG and Boulogne 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 0.834 / defence 0.916 | Boulogne attack 0.875 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.156 / away 1.197. Data: 58 Grenoble games / 24 Boulogne games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Grenoble 36% | Draw 31% | Boulogne 33%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Boulogne 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Grenoble as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grenoble if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Grenoble 50% | Boulogne 60%.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights