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Poisson rates Estac Troyes at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estac Troyes vs PAU encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Estac Troyes welcome PAU to Stade de l'Aube. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 February 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Estac Troyes stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Estac Troyes have posted 7W 1D 2L at Stade de l'Aube — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Estac Troyes are significantly better at Stade de l'Aube than their overall form suggests.

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.

PAU's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Estac Troyes) versus 1.20 (PAU). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Estac Troyes, 0 for PAU and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Estac Troyes in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.

PAU in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 35% versus PAU 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 47% | PAU 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.45 xG and PAU 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 1.167 / defence 0.950 | PAU attack 1.117 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.146 / away 1.192. Data: 57 Estac Troyes games / 57 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 41% | Draw 26% | PAU 33%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | PAU 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Estac Troyes as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 60% | PAU 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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