Estac Troyes 4-3 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Estac Troyes at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estac Troyes vs PAU encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Estac Troyes welcome PAU to Stade de l'Aube. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 February 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Estac Troyes stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Estac Troyes have posted 7W 1D 2L at Stade de l'Aube — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Estac Troyes are significantly better at Stade de l'Aube than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Estac Troyes) versus 1.20 (PAU). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Estac Troyes, 0 for PAU and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Estac Troyes in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
PAU in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 35% versus PAU 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 47% | PAU 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.45 xG and PAU 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 1.167 / defence 0.950 | PAU attack 1.117 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.146 / away 1.192. Data: 57 Estac Troyes games / 57 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 41% | Draw 26% | PAU 33%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | PAU 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Estac Troyes as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 60% | PAU 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 41% | Draw 26% | PAU 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Estac Troyes 1.45 / PAU 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 1.167 / def 0.950 | PAU attack 1.117 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.146 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.26
PAU xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs PAU kick off?
Estac Troyes vs PAU kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs PAU?
Estac Troyes 4 - 3 PAU.
Where is Estac Troyes vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs PAU part of?
Estac Troyes vs PAU is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 41% chance of winning, PAU a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Estac Troyes and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and PAU?
Record (5 meetings): Estac Troyes 2W | Draws 3 | PAU 0W.
What form are Estac Troyes and PAU in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. PAU (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Estac Troyes's attack at 1.17x the league average against PAU's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
41%
2.42
26%
3.90
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.71
1.26
PAU xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
12%
8.57
8%
12.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.26 for PAU, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Estac Troyes have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 25W 11D 21L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAU's form line: 19W 19D 19L from 57 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estac Troyes on 1.51 PPG, PAU on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Estac Troyes have posted 1.89 PPG from 28 outings (16W 5D 7L).
On the road, PAU have gone 7W 11D 10L from 28 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estac Troyes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.28 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and PAU in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 25W 11D 21L in their last 57 games (1.51 PPG), while PAU have gone 19W 19D 19L in their last 57 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or PAU away?
Estac Troyes's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.89 PPG; PAU away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, PAU in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2024, when Estac Troyes won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estac Troyes's record when hosting PAU specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Estac Troyes
3
Draws
0
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and PAU?
From 6 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 3, PAU have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Estac Troyes 4-3 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and PAU?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 32%, PAU 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Estac Troyes) and 61% (PAU). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Estac Troyes have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 61% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estac Troyes vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Estac Troyes's matches and 61% of PAU's.
Do Estac Troyes and PAU tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, PAU in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Estac Troyes edge out PAU 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat PAU 4-3 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.45 xG and PAU 1.26 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Estac Troyes beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAU outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.17 / defence 0.95 against PAU attack 1.12 / defence 1.08, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 41% | Draw 26% | PAU 33%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 47%, PAU 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
PAU's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.51 PPG, PAU 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAU (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.