🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Dunkerque (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Clermont Foot face Dunkerque.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 25 as Clermont Foot welcome Dunkerque to Stade Gabriel Montpied. Kick-off is set for Friday 27 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Clermont Foot have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Clermont Foot's home record at Stade Gabriel Montpied: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Dunkerque stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Dunkerque's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form points away from home here. Dunkerque's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Clermont Foot's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Clermont Foot register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Dunkerque in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Clermont Foot have won 0, Dunkerque 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Dunkerque in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 55% versus Dunkerque 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 40% | Dunkerque 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.08 xG and Dunkerque 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 1.002 / defence 1.038 | Dunkerque attack 1.265 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.156 / away 1.197. Dunkerque have an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Clermont Foot games / 58 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 26% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 49%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Dunkerque 2.04. Dunkerque hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Dunkerque are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dunkerque offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 80% | Dunkerque 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights