Annecy 2-0 Caen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Caen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parc des Sports plays host to Annecy versus Caen in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Tuesday 31 January 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Annecy have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Parc des Sports, Annecy have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Caen (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Caen have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Annecy, 1.40 for Caen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Annecy, 0 for Caen and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Caen half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 30% versus Caen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Annecy 35% | Caen 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.03 xG and Caen 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.837 / defence 0.949 | Caen attack 0.930 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.068. Data: 20 Annecy games / 58 Caen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 36% | Draw 32% | Caen 32%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Caen 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 30% | Caen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Caen | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Tuesday 31 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 36% | Draw 32% | Caen 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Annecy 1.03 / Caen 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.837 / def 0.949 | Caen attack 0.930 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Annecy (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Caen xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Caen kick off?
Annecy vs Caen kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 31 January 2023 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Caen?
Annecy 2 - 0 Caen.
Where is Annecy vs Caen being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Caen part of?
Annecy vs Caen is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Caen?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 36% chance of winning, Caen a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Caen?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Annecy and Caen will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Caen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Caen?
Record (1 meetings): Annecy 0W | Draws 1 | Caen 0W.
What form are Annecy and Caen in?
Annecy (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Caen (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Annecy's attack at 0.84x the league average against Caen's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Caen's attack (0.93x) against Annecy's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 20/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
36%
2.76
32%
3.12
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Annecy xG
Total xG
1.97
0.94
Caen xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
11%
8.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Annecy and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Annecy and 0.94 for Caen, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Caen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Annecy come into this having played 20 games, going 6W 7D 7L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-D. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Caen sit at 1.45 PPG from 20 outings (7W 8D 5L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Annecy against 1.45 for Caen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Annecy's home form reads 4W 2D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Caen have taken 1.00 points per game from 10 outings (2W 4D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Caen's season.
Attack vs Defence
Annecy are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Caen are on 1.15 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Annecy have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Caen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Caen in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 6W 7D 7L in their last 20 games (1.25 PPG), while Caen have gone 7W 8D 5L in their last 20 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Caen away?
Annecy's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.40 PPG; Caen away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Annecy or Caen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Caen in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Caen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Annecy
2
Draws
2
Caen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Caen?
From 6 meetings on record, Annecy have won 2, Caen have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Caen last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2025, when Annecy 1-0 Caen.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 30%, Caen 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Annecy and 40% for Caen.
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Annecy have failed to score in 50% of games; Caen in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Caen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Caen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Annecy's recent matches and 60% of Caen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Caen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Annecy's recent games and 40% of Caen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Caen tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Caen in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Caen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Caen 2-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.03 xG and Caen 0.94 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Annecy beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Caen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.84 / defence 0.95 against Caen attack 0.93 / defence 1.06, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 36% | Draw 32% | Caen 32%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 35%, Caen 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Caen's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.25 PPG, Caen 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.