Niort 1-3 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Amiens at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Niort vs Amiens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Amiens make the trip to Stade René Gaillard to face Niort in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Tuesday 31 January 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Niort (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Niort, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade René Gaillard, Niort have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Amiens's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Niort against 1.00 for Amiens. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Niort lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 0–3 with Amiens winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Niort — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Amiens — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Niort 41% versus Amiens 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Niort 43% | Amiens 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Niort 0.93 xG and Amiens 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Niort attack 0.839 / defence 1.099 | Amiens attack 1.048 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.068. Data: 58 Niort games / 58 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Niort 28% | Draw 30% | Amiens 43%. Fair-value odds: Niort 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Amiens 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Niort 50% | Amiens 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Niort vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade René Gaillard • Kick-off: Tuesday 31 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Niort 28% | Draw 30% | Amiens 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Niort 0.93 / Amiens 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Niort attack 0.839 / def 1.099 | Amiens attack 1.048 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Amiens (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Niort xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Amiens xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Niort vs Amiens kick off?
Niort vs Amiens kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 31 January 2023 at Stade René Gaillard.
What was the final score in Niort vs Amiens?
Niort 1 - 3 Amiens.
Where is Niort vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade René Gaillard.
What competition is Niort vs Amiens part of?
Niort vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Niort vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Niort a 28% chance of winning, Amiens a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Niort vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Niort and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Niort vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Amiens?
Record (3 meetings): Niort 0W | Draws 1 | Amiens 2W.
What form are Niort and Amiens in?
Niort (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Amiens (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Niort's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (1.05x) against Niort's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
28%
3.63
30%
3.34
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Niort xG
Total xG
2.16
1.23
Amiens xG
3.63
28%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
8%
12.41
17%
5.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 14.1 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Niort vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Niort and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Niort and 1.23 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Niort vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Niort's recent record stands at 16W 15D 27L from 58 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Niort is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amiens, meanwhile, have gone 17W 23D 18L across 58 games — 1.28 PPG, with D-W-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Niort against 1.28 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Niort have managed 10W 7D 12L from 29 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Amiens's away record stands at 5W 14D 10L across 29 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Niort are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.14 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Niort
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Niort and Amiens in coming into this match?
Niort have gone 16W 15D 27L in their last 58 games (1.09 PPG), while Amiens have gone 17W 23D 18L in their last 58 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Niort at home or Amiens away?
Niort's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Niort at home: 1.28 PPG; Amiens away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Niort or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Niort have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Amiens in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Amiens have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Amiens won 3-0 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Niort have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Niort
1
Draws
3
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Amiens?
From 4 meetings on record, Niort have won 0, Amiens have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Niort and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2023, when Niort 1-3 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Niort and Amiens?
Amiens have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Niort see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Niort 41%, Amiens 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Niort and 31% for Amiens.
On the defensive side: Niort keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Niort have failed to score in 41% of games; Amiens in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Niort home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Niort play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Niort's recent matches and 55% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Niort vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Niort's recent games and 31% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Niort and Amiens tend to score early?
Niort have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Amiens in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Amiens cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Niort.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Niort 1-3 at Stade René Gaillard, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Niort 0.93 xG and Amiens 1.23 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Amiens outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Niort attack 0.84 / defence 1.10 against Amiens attack 1.05 / defence 0.96, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Niort 28% | Draw 30% | Amiens 43%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Niort 43%, Amiens 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Niort's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Amiens's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Niort 1.09 PPG, Amiens 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Niort (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.