Metz 1-1 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Metz at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Metz vs Rodez encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Metz welcome Rodez to Stade Saint-Symphorien. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 31 January 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Metz have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Metz at Stade Saint-Symphorien this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Saint-Symphorien. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rodez stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Metz carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Metz's 30% rate and Rodez's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Metz have won 1, Rodez 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2022, ended 4–1 with Metz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Metz in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Rodez in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 47% versus Rodez 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Metz 47% | Rodez 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 1.20 xG and Rodez 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 0.983 / defence 0.977 | Rodez attack 0.863 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.068. Data: 20 Metz games / 58 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Metz 42% | Draw 30% | Rodez 27%. Fair-value odds: Metz 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Rodez 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Metz at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Metz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Metz 30% | Rodez 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Tuesday 31 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 42% | Draw 30% | Rodez 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Metz 1.20 / Rodez 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 0.983 / def 0.977 | Rodez attack 0.863 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Metz (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Metz xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Rodez xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Metz vs Rodez kick off?
Metz vs Rodez kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 31 January 2023 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Rodez?
Metz 1 - 1 Rodez.
Where is Metz vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Rodez part of?
Metz vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 42% chance of winning, Rodez a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Metz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Metz and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Metz vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Rodez?
Record (1 meetings): Metz 1W | Draws 0 | Rodez 0W.
What form are Metz and Rodez in?
Metz (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Rodez (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Metz's attack at 0.98x the league average against Rodez's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Metz's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Metz Win
42%
2.36
30%
3.29
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Metz xG
Total xG
2.10
0.90
Rodez xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
8%
12.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.2 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Metz and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Metz and 0.90 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Metz's recent record stands at 15W 18D 25L from 58 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 14W 20D 24L across 58 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Metz on 1.09 PPG, Rodez on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Metz have managed 8W 10D 11L from 29 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rodez's away record stands at 8W 7D 14L across 29 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Metz are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 0.84 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Metz and Rodez in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 15W 18D 25L in their last 58 games (1.09 PPG), while Rodez have gone 14W 20D 24L in their last 58 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Rodez away?
Metz's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 1.17 PPG; Rodez away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Metz or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Metz have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Rodez in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Metz and Rodez runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2022, when Metz won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Metz's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Metz
2
Draws
0
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Rodez?
From 4 meetings on record, Metz have won 2, Rodez have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2025, when Metz 3-3 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Metz and Rodez?
Metz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Rodez see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 48%, Rodez 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Metz) and 31% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Metz keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Rodez in 34%; Metz have failed to score in 34% of games; Rodez in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Metz play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Metz's recent matches and 31% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Metz vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Metz's recent games and 31% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metz and Rodez tend to score early?
Metz have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Rodez in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Metz and Rodez share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz and Rodez finished level at 1-1 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.20 xG and Rodez 0.90 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against Rodez attack 0.86 / defence 1.06, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 42% | Draw 30% | Rodez 27%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 47%, Rodez 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Rodez's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Metz 1.09 PPG, Rodez 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.