Bastia 2-0 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bastia at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bastia vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Saint Etienne make the trip to Stade Armand-Césari to face Bastia in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Tuesday 31 January 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Bastia's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bastia have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stade Armand-Césari — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Armand-Césari. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Saint Etienne have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Bastia. A 0.50 PPG lead over Saint Etienne (1.50 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Bastia 0W, Saint Etienne 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2022, ended 0–5 with Saint Etienne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Bastia half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 41% versus Saint Etienne 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 29% | Saint Etienne 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.24 xG and Saint Etienne 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.877 / defence 0.729 | Saint Etienne attack 0.988 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.068. Saint Etienne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing Bastia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Bastia's defence rating of 0.729 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Bastia games / 20 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 47% | Draw 30% | Saint Etienne 23%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Saint Etienne 4.35. Bastia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bastia are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bastia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 10% | Saint Etienne 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Tuesday 31 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 47% | Draw 30% | Saint Etienne 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Bastia 1.24 / Saint Etienne 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.877 / def 0.729 | Saint Etienne attack 0.988 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Bastia (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Saint Etienne xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Bastia vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 31 January 2023 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Saint Etienne?
Bastia 2 - 0 Saint Etienne.
Where is Bastia vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Saint Etienne part of?
Bastia vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 47% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Bastia and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Saint Etienne?
Record (1 meetings): Bastia 0W | Draws 0 | Saint Etienne 1W.
What form are Bastia and Saint Etienne in?
Bastia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Saint Etienne (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bastia's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (0.99x) against Bastia's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 58/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
47%
2.13
30%
3.28
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.01
0.77
Saint Etienne xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
7%
15.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 10.3 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Bastia and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Bastia and 0.77 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bastia's recent record stands at 19W 20D 19L from 58 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 12W 17D 29L across 58 games — 0.91 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bastia by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Saint Etienne heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bastia have managed 11W 13D 5L from 29 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 5W 8D 16L across 29 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bastia are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.19 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne in 66%.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 19W 20D 19L in their last 58 games (1.33 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 12W 17D 29L in their last 58 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Saint Etienne away?
Bastia's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.59 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Bastia or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won 5-0 on 30 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bastia have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Bastia
1
Draws
3
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Saint Etienne?
From 6 meetings on record, Bastia have won 2, Saint Etienne have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Bastia 2-0 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bastia see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 34%, Saint Etienne 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Bastia) and 55% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Bastia's recent matches and 66% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Bastia's recent games and 55% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bastia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Saint Etienne 2-0 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.24 xG and Saint Etienne 0.77 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.88 / defence 0.73 against Saint Etienne attack 0.99 / defence 1.23, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 47% | Draw 30% | Saint Etienne 23%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 29%, Saint Etienne 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bastia arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.