Caen 3-1 Bastia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Caen at 41%, yet in-form Bastia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Caen vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Caen welcome Bastia to Stade Michel d'Ornano. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 February 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Caen have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Caen's home record at Stade Michel d'Ornano: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Michel d'Ornano. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Caen are significantly better at Stade Michel d'Ornano than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bastia — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Caen have won 1, Bastia 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2022, ended 0–1 with Bastia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Caen in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Bastia in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 49% versus Bastia 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Caen 37% | Bastia 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.08 xG and Bastia 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 0.973 / defence 0.838 | Bastia attack 0.930 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.172 / away 1.054. Data: 59 Caen games / 59 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Caen 41% | Draw 31% | Bastia 27%. Fair-value odds: Caen 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Bastia 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Caen as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bastia (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Caen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.91 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Caen 40% | Bastia 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Friday 3 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 41% | Draw 31% | Bastia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Caen 1.08 / Bastia 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 0.973 / def 0.838 | Bastia attack 0.930 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.172 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Caen (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Caen xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Bastia xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Bastia kick off?
Caen vs Bastia kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 3 February 2023 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Bastia?
Caen 3 - 1 Bastia.
Where is Caen vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Bastia part of?
Caen vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 41% chance of winning, Bastia a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Caen and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Bastia?
Record (3 meetings): Caen 1W | Draws 1 | Bastia 1W.
What form are Caen and Bastia in?
Caen (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Bastia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Caen's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Bastia's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Caen's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
41%
2.42
31%
3.19
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Caen xG
Total xG
1.91
0.82
Bastia xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
9%
10.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 12.2 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Caen and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Caen and 0.82 for Bastia, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Caen come into this having played 59 games, going 20W 19D 20L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bastia sit at 1.36 PPG from 59 outings (20W 20D 19L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Caen on 1.34 PPG, Bastia on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Caen's home form reads 14W 7D 8L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Bastia have taken 1.07 points per game from 29 outings (8W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Caen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Caen are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.00 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and Bastia in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 20W 19D 20L in their last 59 games (1.34 PPG), while Bastia have gone 20W 20D 19L in their last 59 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Bastia away?
Caen's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.69 PPG; Bastia away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Caen or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Caen have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Bastia in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Caen and Bastia runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Caen's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Caen
1
Draws
2
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Bastia?
From 8 meetings on record, Caen have won 5, Bastia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Bastia 2-1 Caen.
Who has won more matches between Caen and Bastia?
Caen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 45%, Bastia 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Caen) and 41% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Caen keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Bastia in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Caen's recent matches and 48% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Caen vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Caen's recent games and 41% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Bastia tend to score early?
Caen have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Bastia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Caen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bastia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen beat Bastia 3-1 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.08 xG and Bastia 0.82 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Caen beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 0.97 / defence 0.84 against Bastia attack 0.93 / defence 0.95, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 41% | Draw 31% | Bastia 27%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 37%, Bastia 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Bastia's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Caen 1.34 PPG, Bastia 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Caen win broke the near-deadlock. Caen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. Bastia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.