Bordeaux 1-2 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Havre at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bordeaux vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Le Havre travel to Stade Matmut-Atlantique to take on Bordeaux. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 31 January 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bordeaux have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bordeaux at Stade Matmut-Atlantique this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Matmut-Atlantique. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Bordeaux are significantly better at Stade Matmut-Atlantique than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Havre stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Le Havre are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bordeaux, 1 for Le Havre and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2022, ended 0–1 with Le Havre winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Bordeaux trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Le Havre trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bordeaux 59% versus Le Havre 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 57% | Le Havre 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 0.83 xG and Le Havre 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 1.014 / defence 0.905 | Le Havre attack 0.945 / defence 0.709. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.068. Le Havre's defence strength of 0.709 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 20 Bordeaux games / 58 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 30% | Draw 34% | Le Havre 35%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | Le Havre 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Bordeaux's lower xG of 0.83 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.74 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Bordeaux 40% | Le Havre 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Tuesday 31 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 30% | Draw 34% | Le Havre 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 34% | xG Bordeaux 0.83 / Le Havre 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 1.014 / def 0.905 | Le Havre attack 0.945 / def 0.709 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Le Havre xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Le Havre kick off?
Bordeaux vs Le Havre kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 31 January 2023 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Le Havre?
Bordeaux 1 - 2 Le Havre.
Where is Bordeaux vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Le Havre part of?
Bordeaux vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 30% chance of winning, Le Havre a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Bordeaux and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Le Havre?
Record (1 meetings): Bordeaux 0W | Draws 0 | Le Havre 1W.
What form are Bordeaux and Le Havre in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Le Havre (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bordeaux's attack at 1.01x the league average against Le Havre's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Bordeaux's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
30%
3.28
34%
2.91
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
1.74
0.91
Le Havre xG
3.28
30%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.92
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
12%
8.19
15%
6.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.5 | 16.0 | 7.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Bordeaux and 0.91 for Le Havre, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Bordeaux have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 16W 19D 23L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Havre's form line: 25W 18D 15L from 58 games, 1.60 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Le Havre are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bordeaux.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bordeaux have posted 1.28 PPG from 29 outings (9W 10D 10L).
On the road, Le Havre have gone 12W 10D 7L from 29 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Bordeaux are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.17 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 16W 19D 23L in their last 58 games (1.16 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 25W 18D 15L in their last 58 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Le Havre away?
Le Havre's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 1.28 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Bordeaux or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Le Havre in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bordeaux and Le Havre runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bordeaux
0
Draws
2
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Le Havre?
From 2 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 0, Le Havre have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2023, when Bordeaux 1-2 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and Le Havre?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bordeaux 59%, Le Havre 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Bordeaux) and 34% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Le Havre in 48%; Bordeaux have failed to score in 28% of games; Le Havre in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 38% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bordeaux vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Bordeaux's recent games and 34% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Le Havre tend to score early?
Bordeaux have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Le Havre edge out Bordeaux 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Bordeaux 1-2 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 0.83 xG and Le Havre 0.91 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Le Havre outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 1.01 / defence 0.91 against Le Havre attack 0.94 / defence 0.71, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 30% | Draw 34% | Le Havre 35%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 57%, Le Havre 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Le Havre's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.