Amiens 4-3 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Amiens at 37%, yet in-form Clermont Foot provide a compelling counter-argument — this Amiens vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de la Licorne plays host to Amiens versus Clermont Foot in Ligue 2 (matchday 22). Kick-off: Monday 9 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form
Amiens (all games): 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 — 0.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Amiens's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Clermont Foot have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Clermont Foot's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Clermont Foot are 0.50 PPG clear of Amiens over their recent games (0.90 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Nov 2025, ended Amiens 1–2 Clermont Foot — a Clermont Foot win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Clermont Foot goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 64%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 51% versus Clermont Foot 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 54% | Clermont Foot 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.07 xG and Clermont Foot 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.829 / defence 1.090 | Clermont Foot attack 0.781 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.151. Clermont Foot's attack rating of 0.781 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Amiens's last 55 games and Clermont Foot's last 55.
Result probabilities: Amiens 37% | Draw 30% | Clermont Foot 32%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.69 | Draw 3.29 | Clermont Foot 3.08. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Clermont Foot (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Amiens's last 10 home games and Clermont Foot's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Amiens 50% (last 10 home games) | Clermont Foot 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 22 | Venue: Stade de la Licorne • Kick-off: Monday 9 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 37% | Draw 30% | Clermont Foot 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Amiens 1.07 / Clermont Foot 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.829 / def 1.090 | Clermont Foot attack 0.781 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Amiens (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Clermont Foot xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Amiens vs Clermont Foot FAQs
What time does Amiens vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Amiens vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 9 February 2026 at Stade de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Clermont Foot?
Amiens 4 - 3 Clermont Foot.
Where is Amiens vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Clermont Foot part of?
Amiens vs Clermont Foot is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 22) (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 37% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Amiens and Clermont Foot will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Amiens vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Amiens's attack rating (0.83) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (0.78x) against Amiens's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from Amiens's last 55 games and Clermont Foot's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
37%
2.69
30%
3.29
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.05
0.98
Clermont Foot xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
14%
7.17
11%
8.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Amiens vs Clermont Foot Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Amiens and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Amiens and 0.98 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Amiens come into this having played 55 games, going 18W 8D 29L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Clermont Foot sit at 0.98 PPG from 55 outings (12W 18D 25L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Amiens against 0.98 for Clermont Foot. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Amiens's home form reads 12W 5D 10L across their last 27 home games, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Clermont Foot have taken 0.93 points per game from their last 27 away games (6W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Amiens are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 0.95 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
Amiens (Home) vs Clermont Foot (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Amiens
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Amiens vs Clermont Foot Form FAQs
What form are Amiens and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 18W 8D 29L in their last 55 games (1.13 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 12W 18D 25L in their last 55 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Clermont Foot away?
Amiens's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.52 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 9 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Amiens
1
Draws
1
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Amiens vs Clermont Foot H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Clermont Foot?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Amiens have won 2, Clermont Foot have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Amiens and Clermont Foot last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 February 2026: Amiens 4-3 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Clermont Foot?
Amiens have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 52%, Clermont Foot 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Amiens) and 48% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 26% of games; Clermont Foot in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Amiens vs Clermont Foot Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Amiens and Clermont Foot matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Amiens's recent matches and 48% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Amiens and Clermont Foot matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Amiens's recent games and 48% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Clermont Foot matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Amiens's recent matches and 67% of Clermont Foot's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Amiens edge out Clermont Foot 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Clermont Foot 4-3 at Stade de la Licorne, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.07 xG and Clermont Foot 0.98 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Amiens beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Clermont Foot outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.83 / defence 1.09 against Clermont Foot attack 0.78 / defence 1.15, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 37% | Draw 30% | Clermont Foot 32%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 54%, Clermont Foot 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.13 PPG, Clermont Foot 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Ligue 2 fixtures — matchday 22
All Ligue 2 fixtures →
More French football predictions →