Boulogne 1-2 Rodez – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Rodez at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Boulogne vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Rodez make the trip to Stade de la Libération to face Boulogne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Friday 6 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form

Boulogne (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Boulogne at Stade de la Libération this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Rodez's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Rodez have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Boulogne against 1.40 for Rodez. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Boulogne have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Rodez in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Boulogne lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Rodez winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Boulogne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).

Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Boulogne 56% and Rodez 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boulogne 52% | Rodez 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 1.48 xG and Rodez 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.973 / defence 1.354 | Rodez attack 1.182 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.172 / away 1.163. Rodez bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing Boulogne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Boulogne games / 55 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Boulogne 31% | Draw 22% | Rodez 47%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 3.23 | Draw 4.55 | Rodez 2.13. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Boulogne 60% | Rodez 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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