Rennes 1-0 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rennes at 43%, yet the head-to-head data favours Toulouse — this Rennes vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Roazhon Park plays host to Rennes versus Toulouse in Ligue 1 (matchday 24). Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Rennes (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Rennes have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Toulouse have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Toulouse's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Rennes, 1.50 for Toulouse — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Toulouse have the stronger record — 4 wins to Rennes's 1, with 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2025, ended Rennes 2–2 Toulouse — a draw.
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
Rennes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 51% versus Toulouse 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 61% | Toulouse 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.47 xG and Toulouse 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.162 / defence 0.985 | Toulouse attack 1.003 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.219. Data: built from Rennes's last 57 games and Toulouse's last 57.
Result probabilities: Rennes 43% | Draw 26% | Toulouse 31%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 2.31 | Draw 3.89 | Toulouse 3.22. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rennes are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rennes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Rennes's last 10 home games and Toulouse's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rennes 80% (last 10 home games) | Toulouse 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 24 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 43% | Draw 26% | Toulouse 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Rennes 1.47 / Toulouse 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.162 / def 0.985 | Toulouse attack 1.003 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Rennes (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Toulouse xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rennes vs Toulouse FAQs
What time does Rennes vs Toulouse kick off?
Rennes vs Toulouse kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Toulouse?
Rennes 1 - 0 Toulouse.
Where is Rennes vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Toulouse part of?
Rennes vs Toulouse is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 24) (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 43% chance of winning, Toulouse a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Rennes and Toulouse will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rennes vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rennes's attack rating (1.16) and Toulouse's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Toulouse's attack (1.00x) against Rennes's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from Rennes's last 57 games and Toulouse's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
43%
2.31
26%
3.89
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Rennes xG
Total xG
2.67
1.20
Toulouse xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
13%
7.70
7%
14.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rennes vs Toulouse Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Rennes and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Rennes and 1.20 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rennes's recent record stands at 23W 9D 25L from 57 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Toulouse, meanwhile, have gone 19W 16D 22L across 57 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-D-L-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Rennes against 1.28 for Toulouse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rennes have managed 15W 4D 9L from their last 28 home games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Toulouse's away record stands at 10W 6D 12L across their last 28 away games, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rennes are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.35 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
Rennes (Home) vs Toulouse (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rennes
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Rennes vs Toulouse Form FAQs
What form are Rennes and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 23W 9D 25L in their last 57 games (1.37 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 19W 16D 22L in their last 57 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Toulouse away?
Rennes's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 1.75 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Rennes or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Toulouse in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rennes have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Toulouse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Rennes
2
Draws
4
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Rennes vs Toulouse H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Toulouse?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Rennes have won 2, Toulouse have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Toulouse last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Rennes 1-0 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 50%, Toulouse 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Rennes) and 50% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Rennes keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Toulouse in 32%; Toulouse in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rennes vs Toulouse Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rennes and Toulouse matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Rennes's recent matches and 43% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rennes and Toulouse matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Rennes's recent games and 50% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rennes and Toulouse matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Rennes's recent matches and 64% of Toulouse's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rennes edge out Toulouse 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Toulouse 1-0 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.47 xG and Toulouse 1.20 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Toulouse landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.16 / defence 0.98 against Toulouse attack 1.00 / defence 0.84, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 43% | Draw 26% | Toulouse 31%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 61%, Toulouse 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Toulouse's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rennes 1.37 PPG, Toulouse 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rennes win broke the near-deadlock. Rennes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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