🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Monaco at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monaco vs Angers encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Monaco and Angers meet at Stade Louis II in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Monaco have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Monaco at Stade Louis II this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Angers (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Angers have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Monaco, 1.30 for Angers — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Historically, Monaco have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 7 meetings, with Angers managing just 1 victories and 1 draws shared.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The historical record gives Monaco a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Monaco — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Angers — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 61% versus Angers 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 63% | Angers 30%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.66 xG and Angers 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 1.197 / defence 1.120 | Angers attack 0.672 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.208. Data: 57 Monaco games / 57 Angers games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Monaco 55% | Draw 24% | Angers 21%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Angers 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Monaco (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Monaco are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Monaco 60% | Angers 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights