Auxerre 0-3 Rennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 47%, yet in-form Rennes provide a compelling counter-argument — this Auxerre vs Rennes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rennes make the trip to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps to face Auxerre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Auxerre's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Rennes (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rennes away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Rennes arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Auxerre, 1 for Rennes and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Auxerre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Rennes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 48% versus Rennes 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 52% | Rennes 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.43 xG and Rennes 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.752 / defence 0.942 | Rennes attack 0.898 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.202. Auxerre's attack strength of 0.752 is below the league average — the 1.43 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rennes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Auxerre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Auxerre games / 56 Rennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 47% | Draw 27% | Rennes 27%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Rennes 3.70. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rennes (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 40% | Rennes 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 47% | Draw 27% | Rennes 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Auxerre 1.43 / Rennes 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.752 / def 0.942 | Rennes attack 0.898 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Rennes xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Rennes kick off?
Auxerre vs Rennes kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Rennes?
Auxerre 0 - 3 Rennes.
Where is Auxerre vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Rennes part of?
Auxerre vs Rennes is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 47% chance of winning, Rennes a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Auxerre and Rennes will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Rennes?
Record (5 meetings): Auxerre 2W | Draws 2 | Rennes 1W.
What form are Auxerre and Rennes in?
Auxerre (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Rennes (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 0.75x the league average against Rennes's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rennes's attack (0.90x) against Auxerre's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
47%
2.15
27%
3.76
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.45
1.02
Rennes xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
6%
15.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.02 for Rennes, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Rennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Auxerre have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 15W 14D 27L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rennes's form line: 22W 9D 25L from 56 games, 1.34 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Auxerre against 1.34 for Rennes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 1.36 PPG from 28 outings (10W 8D 10L).
On the road, Rennes have gone 7W 5D 16L from 28 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.34 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rennes's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Auxerre are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 1.52 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Rennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Rennes in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 15W 14D 27L in their last 56 games (1.05 PPG), while Rennes have gone 22W 9D 25L in their last 56 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Rennes away?
Auxerre's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.36 PPG; Rennes away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rennes won 5-0 on 11 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Rennes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Auxerre
2
Draws
2
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Rennes?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 2, Rennes have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Rennes last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Auxerre 0-3 Rennes.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 43%, Rennes 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Auxerre) and 68% (Rennes). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Auxerre have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Rennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Auxerre's recent matches and 54% of Rennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Rennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Auxerre's matches and 68% of Rennes's.
Do Auxerre and Rennes tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Rennes in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rennes run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Auxerre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Auxerre 0-3 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.43 xG and Rennes 1.02 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Auxerre fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Rennes outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.75 / defence 0.94 against Rennes attack 0.90 / defence 1.27, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 47% | Draw 27% | Rennes 27%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Rennes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 52%, Rennes 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rennes's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.05 PPG, Rennes 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rennes win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rennes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.