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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 37%, yet in-form Paris Saint Germain provide a compelling counter-argument — this Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Océane plays host to Le Havre versus Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 20:05 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Le Havre have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Le Havre have posted 4W 5D 1L at Stade Océane — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Le Havre are significantly better at Stade Océane than their overall form suggests.
Paris Saint Germain (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Paris Saint Germain have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Paris Saint Germain are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Le Havre have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Paris Saint Germain in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Paris Saint Germain, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Paris Saint Germain have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Paris Saint Germain goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 56% versus Paris Saint Germain 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 53% | Paris Saint Germain 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.29 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.905 / defence 0.858 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.223 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.200. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack strength of 1.223 — the away xG of 1.26 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Le Havre games / 57 Paris Saint Germain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 37% | Draw 27% | Paris Saint Germain 36%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Paris Saint Germain 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Le Havre at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Paris Saint Germain (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 60% | Paris Saint Germain 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 20:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (5 meetings): Le Havre 0W | Draws 1 | Paris Saint Germain 4W • Goals trend: 3.80 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Le Havre 5 – 14 Paris Saint Germain • H2H markets: BTTS 60% | Over 2.5 80% | Win rates: Le Havre 0% / Draw 20% / Paris Saint Germain 80% • Historical edge: Paris Saint Germain dominant — 4W from 5 meetings (80% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Paris Saint Germain (historical win rate 80%) but Poisson model rates Le Havre as more likely (home 37% / draw 27% / away 36%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.80 goals/game (80% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.55 (47% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 60%, Poisson probability 52% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Le Havre (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L • Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W • Le Havre home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | CS 3 • Paris Saint Germain away split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | CS 2 • Form edge: Paris Saint Germain lead by 1.20 PPG (2.40 vs 1.20) • xG vs form (Le Havre): Poisson xG of 1.29 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.10 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Paris Saint Germain): Poisson xG of 1.26 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.50 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~1.8 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.55 (47% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Le Havre 6/10, Paris Saint Germain 6/10; Poisson BTTS probability 52% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Paris Saint Germain on PPG but Poisson rates Le Havre higher (37% vs 36% for Paris Saint Germain) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 37% | Draw 27% | Paris Saint Germain 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Le Havre 1.29 / Paris Saint Germain 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.905 / def 0.858 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.223 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Paris Saint Germain xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 20:05 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Le Havre 0 - 1 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 37% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain?
• Record (5 meetings): Le Havre 0W | Draws 1 | Paris Saint Germain 4W • Goals trend: 3.80 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Le Havre 5 – 14 Paris Saint Germain • H2H markets: BTTS 60% | Over 2.5 80% | Win rates: Le Havre 0% / Draw 20% / Paris Saint Germain 80% • Historical edge: Paris Saint Germain dominant — 4W from 5 meetings (80% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Paris Saint Germain (historical win rate 80%) but Poisson model rates Le Havre as more likely (home 37% / draw 27% / away 36%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.80 goals/game (80% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.55 (47% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 60%, Poisson probability 52% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain in?
• Le Havre (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L • Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W • Le Havre home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | CS 3 • Paris Saint Germain away split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | CS 2 • Form edge: Paris Saint Germain lead by 1.20 PPG (2.40 vs 1.20) • xG vs form (Le Havre): Poisson xG of 1.29 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.10 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Paris Saint Germain): Poisson xG of 1.26 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.50 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~1.8 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.55 (47% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Le Havre 6/10, Paris Saint Germain 6/10; Poisson BTTS probability 52% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Paris Saint Germain on PPG but Poisson rates Le Havre higher (37% vs 36% for Paris Saint Germain) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture