Paris FC 1-0 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Paris FC vs Nice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Paris FC and Nice meet at Stade Jean Bouin in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Paris FC's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Paris FC have posted 1W 4D 5L at Stade Jean Bouin — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Nice (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Nice have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Paris FC 0W, Nice 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Paris FC half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Nice half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 53% versus Nice 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 51% | Nice 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.41 xG and Nice 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 0.720 / defence 1.499 | Nice attack 1.036 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.197. Paris FC's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 1.41 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Nice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing Paris FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Paris FC games / 57 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 29% | Draw 23% | Nice 48%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 3.45 | Draw 4.35 | Nice 2.08. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nice as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Paris FC 50% | Nice 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Jean Bouin • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 29% | Draw 23% | Nice 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Paris FC 1.41 / Nice 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 0.720 / def 1.499 | Nice attack 1.036 / def 1.308 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Nice (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Nice xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Nice kick off?
Paris FC vs Nice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Stade Jean Bouin.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Nice?
Paris FC 1 - 0 Nice.
Where is Paris FC vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade Jean Bouin.
What competition is Paris FC vs Nice part of?
Paris FC vs Nice is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 29% chance of winning, Nice a 48% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Paris FC and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Nice?
Record (1 meetings): Paris FC 0W | Draws 1 | Nice 0W.
What form are Paris FC and Nice in?
Paris FC (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Nice (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Paris FC's attack at 0.72x the league average against Nice's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nice's attack (1.04x) against Paris FC's defence (1.50x) — and the away total comes out at 1.86.
These ratings are built from 23/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
29%
3.41
23%
4.43
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Paris FC xG
Total xG
3.27
1.86
Nice xG
3.41
29%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
16%
6.42
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
5%
21.92
12%
8.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.86 for Nice, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Paris FC have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 26W 14D 17L record — D-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nice's form line: 23W 15D 19L from 57 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-D. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Paris FC against 1.47 for Nice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Paris FC have posted 1.82 PPG from 28 outings (15W 6D 7L).
On the road, Nice have gone 8W 6D 14L from 28 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Paris FC are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.68 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nice in 67%.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Nice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Nice in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 26W 14D 17L in their last 57 games (1.61 PPG), while Nice have gone 23W 15D 19L in their last 57 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Nice away?
Paris FC's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.82 PPG; Nice away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Nice in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Paris FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris FC won 3-0 on 30 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris FC have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Paris FC
1
Draws
0
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Nice?
From 3 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 2, Nice have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Paris FC 3-0 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Nice?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 54%, Nice 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Paris FC and 68% for Nice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Nice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Paris FC's games and 75% of Nice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Paris FC vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Paris FC's matches and 68% of Nice's.
Do Paris FC and Nice tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Nice in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Paris FC defy the odds to beat Nice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Nice 1-0 at Stade Jean Bouin, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.41 xG and Nice 1.86 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nice landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 0.72 / defence 1.50 against Nice attack 1.04 / defence 1.31, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 29% | Draw 23% | Nice 48%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Paris FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 51%, Nice 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nice's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.61 PPG, Nice 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Paris FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.