🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Lorient at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lorient vs Auxerre encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Lorient welcome Auxerre to Stade du Moustoir. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 March 2026 at 16:15 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lorient have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lorient, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Lorient have posted 5W 4D 1L at Stade du Moustoir — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Auxerre — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Auxerre's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

On current form, Lorient have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Lorient, 2 for Auxerre and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Auxerre winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Lorient in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Auxerre in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lorient 51% versus Auxerre 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lorient 53% | Auxerre 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lorient 1.49 xG and Auxerre 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lorient attack 1.036 / defence 1.054 | Auxerre attack 0.815 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.180. Data: 23 Lorient games / 57 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Lorient 48% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 26%. Fair-value odds: Lorient 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Auxerre 3.85. Lorient hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Lorient as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lorient offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lorient 80% | Auxerre 30%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights